The Steelhead Alley Index

Transition Mode

Saturday, September 12, 2026

The Steelhead Alley Index is in Transition Mode: water temperature decides whether the read behaves more like a coldwater steelhead window or a warmwater river window. Today's score blends flow, water temperature, clarity, weather, barometric pressure, and active storm state for every active gauge into a single regional read.

Average

Underlying score: 51/100 · Index ranks vs. Sep 12 ±15-day history

▼ -6 vs. yesterday

Tomorrow's predicted Index

75 Good 55% confidence

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook

Marginal Risk · 1 river in zone

Valid Sep 12 9:00am – Sep 13 8:00am EDT

Tuscarawas River

Source: NWS Storm Prediction Center (spc.noaa.gov). Risk tier indicates severe-weather (large hail, damaging wind, tornado) probability over the next 24 hours.

Storm Watch — by region

Four state+lake buckets · auto-refreshes when conditions change

OH · Erie

Quiet

All quiet — no rain, no alerts, no rapid rises.

PA · Erie

Quiet

All quiet — no rain, no alerts, no rapid rises.

NY · Erie

Quiet

All quiet — no rain, no alerts, no rapid rises.

NY · Ontario

Quiet

All quiet — no rain, no alerts, no rapid rises.

My Alley

Your Subset Score

Personal stat — separate from the official Alley Index above. Not for citing externally.

· rivers

States

Within drive

Your Subset

Ranked vs. visible history

All-time · 229 snapshots

Alley Index Your subset

Week Month Quarter Year All

of rivers blown

Today's Story

Fall is unwinding into the run. The Steelhead Alley Index reads 66 (Average) today. The alley is WATCHING: 16 rivers have storm signals building. 0.3" rain expected by 2 pm. Gauges still calm. Watch Rocky River near Berea, Chagrin River @ Willoughby, Vermilion River @ Vermilion and a few more. Down 5 from yesterday.

Transition months are unpredictable — water temps swing, runs straggle, and what fished yesterday may not fish today. Conneaut Creek and Genesee River are leading the Alley right now. Check live conditions before you commit to a drive.

By Technique & Region

Raw composite (0–100) — not percentile-ranked

Fly

Float

Erie Tribs

Ontario Tribs

Top Today

In Trouble

Everything's fishable. Rare day.

All 31 Rivers — by State

River	Rating	Score
Ohio 11 rivers · avg 52
Conneaut Creek	excellent	82
Cuyahoga River	excellent	82
Huron River	excellent	82
Ashtabula River	good	73
Rocky River	fair	45
Vermilion River	fair	45
Euclid Creek	fair	45
Black River	fair	36
Chagrin River	fair	27
Grand River	fair	27
Brandy Run	fair	27
Pennsylvania 4 rivers · avg 50
Walnut Creek	good	64
Elk Creek	fair	45
Twenty Mile Creek	fair	45
Crooked Creek	fair	45
New York — Lake Erie 7 rivers · avg 39
Cattaraugus Creek	excellent	91
Silver Creek	fair	45
Chautauqua Creek	fair	27
Eighteen Mile Creek	fair	27
Canadaway Creek	fair	27
Buffalo Creek	fair	27
Cazenovia Creek	fair	27
New York — Lake Ontario 9 rivers · avg 61
Genesee River	excellent	91
Sandy Creek (Hamlin)	good	73
Irondequoit Creek	good	73
Johnson Creek	good	73
Oak Orchard Creek	good	64
Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)	good	64
Salmon River	fair	36
Black River (Watertown)	fair	36
Sandy Creek (Adams)	fair	36

Methodology. The Alley Index is a percentile rank — today's underlying conditions composite (mean of per-river fishing scores, 0–100) is compared to the historical record on this calendar window (±15 days, all years). An Index of 73 means today is better than 73% of comparable late-season days on record. Bands: Excellent 90+, Good 70–89, Average 30–69, Poor 10–29, Blown 0–9. Refreshed hourly. Season-calibrated: summer mode uses warmwater temperature bands, transition mode follows water temperature, and steelhead mode uses coldwater steelhead bands.

Index calibrating: percentile bands tighten as the historical archive grows. When fewer than 10 comparable days exist in the window, the Index falls back to the raw underlying score so the page always shows a meaningful number.

JSON API: /index/api