Black River

Fair
Confidence: 38%
Sources: recent regression

About Black River

The Black River in Lorain County drains nearly 400 square miles of Ohio farm country before crossing the gravel-floored lower reach at French Creek and emptying into Lake Erie. Steelhead push as far up as the lakeshore concrete weir, with the better water sitting between the Route 6 bridge and the Elywood Park crossings. The river runs colored more often than its OH neighbors and turns over slower after rain.

Best from late October through early April. Slower clearing than Rocky or Chagrin -- give it 36-48 hours after a rise. Spring tail-end runs into early May in cooler years. The optimal fishing flow on Black River is 130–350 CFS — flows above this range are typically too high and stained, flows below run low and clear. The river's long-term median flow is approximately 37 CFS, computed from the last several years of USGS gauge readings.

Current conditions (live, updated every 15 minutes): flow 46 CFS, clarity clear. Steelhead Almanac's Guide's Report rates the river FAIR as of this reading.

STORM WATCHING
Expected: 2:00 PM EDT

0.3" rain expected by 2 pm. Gauges still calm.

Storm signals active in region.

Flow Rate
46
CFS
Gauge Height
1.06
ft
Water Temp
-
°F
Air Temp
73.7
°F
Clarity
Clear
Wind
🌬 7 mph
SSW
Offshore — mouth clean

Last updated: 14 minutes ago (7:30 PM EDT)

Conditions today: Fair. Trending: rough. Storm watching.

Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending Confidence: 0.38

No big rain in the lookback, but the barometer dropped 0.12 inHg over the last 24 hours. Flow held steady at 21 CFS, water temp drifted held steady. Falling pressure has a reputation — sometimes it wakes fish up, sometimes it shuts them down, and we're not going to pretend we know which it'll be today. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. 0.3" rain expected by 2 pm. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.

Lookback window Sep 9, 7 pm to Sep 12, 7 pm ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending

No big rain in the lookback, but the barometer dropped 0.12 inHg over the last 24 hours. Flow held steady at 21 CFS, water temp drifted held steady. Falling pressure has a reputation — sometimes it wakes fish up, sometimes it shuts them down, and we're not going to pretend we know which it'll be today. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. 0.3" rain expected by 2 pm. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.

Lookback window Sep 5, 7 pm to Sep 12, 7 pm ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.

Guide's Report

fair steelhead fishing

Based on current conditions as of Sat, Sep 12 at 7:30 PM EDT (14 minutes ago)

Running 46 CFS, water is clear. Fishable, but you'll earn every grab. Visibility is high. Stealth is your best friend. Increased activity — falling pressure. Set the Hook Like You Mean It.

Steelhead green DAWN DUSK 68° 1% 67° 67° 1% 78° 1% 80° 50% Sunset 7:43pm Dusk 8:10pm Sunrise 7:07am Solar Noon 1:24pm Dawn 6:39am 46 CFS Summer high for summer 🌒 1% Waxing Crescent N E S W 7 SSW mph 29.88" inHg falling Now 7:40pm
Black River
Today's Weather: Good 80° 42% rain SW 8mph
Coming up: Patchy Fog then Chance Showers And Thundersto...
Flow Rate
0 CFS · 1.06 ft
51th percentile · Typical
Summer mode - high for summer
24h trend
+195.8%
N E S W 7 SSW mph wind 72h ago now High 100 Normal 37 Low 20 Flood 424 OPT 6h 24h 72h 1.06ft
Summer fishability window 6–31 CFS
Current-month middle flow band for warm-water fishing
72h movement sharp rise (+52.8%)
Distance high for summer · 1.06ft
Low water — projection flat
Confidence: 38%
Sources: recent regression
Clouds · 74°F · SSW 7mph
29.88"
Guide says: Running 46 CFS, water is clear. Fishable, but you'll earn every grab. Visibility is high. Stealth is your best friend. Increased activity — falling pressure. Set the Hook Like You Mean It.
"Foul Hooked Doesn't Count. Except Today."

Flow is running 1.5× above the optimal zone (6-31 CFS). Hold off until it drops back into shape.

Clear water — steelhead can see everything, including you. Long leaders, lighter tippet (6lb fluoro), natural colors. Stay low and approach from downstream.

How to Fish It

Fly Selection

Clear water demands subtlety. Natural egg colors (Oregon cheese, pale peach), small stonefly nymphs (#12-#14), and pheasant tails. 6lb fluorocarbon tippet max.

Storm Context

STORM WATCHING

0.3" rain expected by 2 pm. Gauges still calm.

Rain is forecast within the next 18.261985619167 hours. Gauges may look innocent right now, but expect movement around 2:00 PM EDT.

Storm signals active in region.

  • - Fish before the rain window if you are going.
  • - Bring rain gear and keep an eye on radar.
  • - Re-check the gauge before committing to a longer drive.

What's Coming

More rain coming on top of already high water. Don't waste your time — wait for 24-48 hours of dry weather to let things clear.

Rigs to consider right now

Match the current report to a setup

All rig guides

Fall river plan

Black River summer fishing targets

Use the current flow, clarity, and sky conditions to choose the target. Summer fish usually reward shade, structure, and low-light timing.

Smallmouth Bass

Where: boulder runs, bridge shade, pool tails, creek-mouth rock, and lower-river current breaks on Black River.

Move: tubes, Ned rigs, small jerkbaits, poppers, and crayfish-colored streamers.

Species guide →

Walleye

Where: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper summer basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Black River.

Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.

Species guide →

Panfish

Where: docks, weed edges, ponds, marina slips, brush, and shaded shoreline structure on Black River.

Move: small jigs, waxworms, micro poppers, and slip floats for kids or fast action.

Species guide →

Northern Pike

Where: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Black River.

Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.

Species guide →

Current read

Clarity is clear. Overall rating: Fair for steelhead. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.

Summer FAQ

What can I fish for on Black River in summer?

Focus on the warm-water species shown above, then use the live flow, clarity, and temperature read to choose shade, rock, current breaks, creek mouths, lakefront structure, and low-light windows.

Steelhead care

Should I target steelhead on Black River in summer?

Usually no. When water is warm, shift to smallmouth, walleye, panfish, pike, or another summer target instead of pressuring stressed trout.

7-Day Flow & Temperature

Flow distribution

1095-day history · n=2,116 · 84% confidence

51th percentile · Sweet spot
6h 24h 72h 46 CFS 20 p25 37 p50 100 p75 OPTIMAL freq
Now vs history
84 CFS below optimal
Optimal window
130–350 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
20–100 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context: Current flow is above typical for September. September median on this river: 17 CFS (n=271 hourly samples).
Clarity vs flow ranges
Steelhead Green likely now
18–77 CFS typical
Stained
366–494 CFS typical
Muddy
667–912 CFS typical
Sweet spot: Historically the productive zone.
-2 -1 0 1 2 31556201722 Theoretical z (standard normal) Sample flow (CFS)
Sample quantiles | Theoretical line Excellent fit (91%)

Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.

Recent Angler Reports

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Near Black River

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30-Day Statistics

Min Flow
4 CFS
Max Flow
1,000 CFS
Avg Flow
32 CFS
Min Temp
-
Max Temp
-
Avg Temp
-

7-Day Fishing Outlook

Multiple days of heavy rain ahead — expect significant flow increases and muddy water. Plan trips for windows between rain events or 1-2 days after.

Best day to fish: Today — Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.

Today is the day before rain moves in — barometric pressure drop often triggers aggressive feeding. Don't miss it.

Daily Fishing Forecast

Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Guide's Report above for a complete picture.

Today — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

This Afternoon: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 80. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then patchy fog. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Sunday: Patchy fog before 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind around 12 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. North wind around 9 mph.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Tuesday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night: Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Friday: A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night: A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Forecast via NWS, updated 2 hours ago (5:02 PM EDT). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.

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