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The Alley Index

7-Day Forecast

A rule-based forecast built from NWS weather, AHPS flow predictions where available, recent storm pulse behavior, and current river scoring.

How Almanac forecasts river conditions · How fishability is scored

Forecast issued Nov 4, 2026 6:00 PM EST

Current Alley Index

49

Current snapshot updated Nov 5, 2026 12:00 AM EST. This is separate from the issued forecast below.

Highest projected day

Saturday, Nov 7 — 62; model confidence 45%

A comparison within this forecast edition, not a recommendation of fishing success.

Thu, Nov 5

59 Issued forecast

55% model confidence

31 of 31 rivers contributing

recent flow trajectory rising

Fri, Nov 6

59 Issued forecast

46% model confidence - low

31 of 31 rivers contributing

AHPS flow forecast available

Sat, Nov 7

62 Issued forecast

45% model confidence - low

31 of 31 rivers contributing

AHPS flow forecast available

Sun, Nov 8

53 Issued forecast

42% model confidence - low

31 of 31 rivers contributing

recent flow trajectory dropping

Mon, Nov 9

52 Issued forecast

41% model confidence - low

31 of 31 rivers contributing

incoming rain matched to recent pulse behavior

Tue, Nov 10

49 Issued forecast

37% model confidence - low

31 of 31 rivers contributing

incoming rain matched to recent pulse behavior

Thursday, Nov 5 issued forecast details 31 rivers

Johnson Creek

Model assessment: excellent
Projected flow:
74.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
57.5°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
58%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Huron River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
144 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
61°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
70%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
89.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
56.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
58%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chagrin River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
214.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Oak Orchard Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
322 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
57.3°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
40%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Genesee River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
664.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
53.5°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
58%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
7000–9500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
95.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
58.5°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
58%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Conneaut Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
18.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
56.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
58%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cuyahoga River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
285 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
61.2°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
70%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cattaraugus Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
191 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
57°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
70%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Irondequoit Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
60.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.7°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
58%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
180–400 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Rocky River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
65.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Euclid Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
12.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Salmon River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
235 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River (Watertown)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
1270 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
62%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
2000–5500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Adams)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
67.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Ashtabula River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
14.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Watershed-scaled proxy from conneaut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–330 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Vermilion River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
13.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
90–225 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Grand River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
37.8 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
71.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
70%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1000 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Brandy Run

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
1.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
6–12 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Elk Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
5.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
35–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Walnut Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
6.1 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–150 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Twenty Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
9.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
110–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Crooked Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
2.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
15–40 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chautauqua Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
11 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–120 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteen Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
80–200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
20.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Canadaway Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
6.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Silver Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
3 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
50%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Buffalo Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
40 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
62%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cazenovia Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
16 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 5, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
62%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit
Friday, Nov 6 issued forecast details 31 rivers

Johnson Creek

Model assessment: excellent
Projected flow:
64.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.9°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
39%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

Model assessment: excellent
Projected flow:
89.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
53%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
93.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
57.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
39%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Oak Orchard Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
322 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
39%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Genesee River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
579.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
51.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
53%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
7000–9500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Irondequoit Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
60.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
53%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
180–400 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Conneaut Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
18.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
39%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chagrin River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
105 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cuyahoga River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
255 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
59.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
69%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cattaraugus Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
133 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
55.3°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
69%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Huron River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
81.3 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
59°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
69%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River (Watertown)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
1490 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
62%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
2000–5500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Rocky River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
61.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Euclid Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
12.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Adams)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
65.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
46%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Ashtabula River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
14.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Watershed-scaled proxy from conneaut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–330 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Vermilion River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
90–225 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Grand River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
37.8 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
69.3°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
69%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1000 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Brandy Run

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
1.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
6–12 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Elk Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
5.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
46%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
35–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Walnut Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
6 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
46%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–150 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Twenty Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
9.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
46%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
110–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Crooked Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
2.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
46%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
15–40 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chautauqua Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–120 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteen Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
46%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
80–200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
18.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Canadaway Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
6.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Silver Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
3 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
46%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Buffalo Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
27 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
62%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cazenovia Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
16 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
62%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Salmon River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
287.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 6, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit
Saturday, Nov 7 issued forecast details 31 rivers

Johnson Creek

Model assessment: excellent
Projected flow:
64.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.4°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

Model assessment: excellent
Projected flow:
89.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
53.6°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Oak Orchard Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
322 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.5°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
93.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Conneaut Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
18.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.7°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cattaraugus Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
226 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 7:00 AM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
53.9°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
68%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Genesee River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
556.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
50.2°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
7000–9500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Irondequoit Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
60.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
52.4°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
180–400 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chagrin River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
105 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cuyahoga River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
255 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
58.3°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
68%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Huron River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
67.6 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
58.5°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
68%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River (Watertown)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
1730 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 7:00 AM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
62%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
2000–5500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Rocky River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
61.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Brandy Run

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
3.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
6–12 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Crooked Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
6.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
15–40 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Euclid Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
12.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Adams)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
64.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
42%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Ashtabula River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
14.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Watershed-scaled proxy from conneaut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–330 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Vermilion River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
90–225 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Grand River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
37.8 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
68.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
68%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1000 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Elk Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
12.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
35–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Walnut Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
5.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
42%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–150 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Twenty Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
9.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
42%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
110–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chautauqua Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–120 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteen Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
9.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
42%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
80–200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
18.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Canadaway Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
6.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Silver Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
3 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
42%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Buffalo Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
27 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 7:00 AM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
62%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cazenovia Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
26 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 7:00 AM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:44 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
62%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Salmon River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
269.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit
Sunday, Nov 8 issued forecast details 31 rivers

Johnson Creek

Model assessment: excellent
Projected flow:
64.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
37%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
89.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.3°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
43%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Oak Orchard Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
322 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.9°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
37%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
93.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
56.4°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
37%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Conneaut Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
18.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
37%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chagrin River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
155.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cattaraugus Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
133.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.5°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
43%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Genesee River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
556.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
50.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
43%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
7000–9500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Irondequoit Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
60.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
53°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
43%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
180–400 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Rocky River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
61.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cuyahoga River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
228 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
59.2°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
67%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Brandy Run

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
2.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
6–12 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Huron River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
43 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
59.6°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
67%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Ashtabula River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
14.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Watershed-scaled proxy from conneaut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–330 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Vermilion River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
90–225 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Grand River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
37.8 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 1:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
69.4°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
67%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1000 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Elk Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
11.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
35–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Walnut Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
12.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–150 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Twenty Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
9.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
110–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Crooked Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
5.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
15–40 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
18.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Euclid Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
16.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Salmon River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
233 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River (Watertown)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
1259.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
2000–5500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Adams)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
64.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chautauqua Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–120 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteen Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
9.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
80–200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Canadaway Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
6.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Silver Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
3 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
38%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Buffalo Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
23.1 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cazenovia Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
17.1 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 8, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit
Monday, Nov 9 issued forecast details 31 rivers

Johnson Creek

Model assessment: excellent
Projected flow:
64.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.9°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
36%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
89.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.2°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
39%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Oak Orchard Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
322 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.9°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
36%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
93.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
56.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
36%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cattaraugus Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
133.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.6°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
39%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Genesee River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
556.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
51.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
39%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
7000–9500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Irondequoit Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
60.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
53°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
39%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
180–400 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Rocky River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
61.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Conneaut Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
18.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.6°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
52%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chagrin River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
132.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cuyahoga River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
228 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 7:00 AM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
59.7°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
66%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Brandy Run

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
2.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
6–12 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Huron River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
31.9 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 7:00 AM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
60.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
66%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Ashtabula River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
14.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Watershed-scaled proxy from conneaut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–330 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Vermilion River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
90–225 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Grand River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
27 CFS
Flow basis:
NWS/AHPS flow forecast
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 7:00 AM EST
Flow source issued:
Nov 4, 2026 10:14 AM EST
Temperature estimate:
69.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
66%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1000 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Elk Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
35–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Walnut Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
12.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–150 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Crooked Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
5.1 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Stained; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
47%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
15–40 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
18.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Euclid Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
14.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Salmon River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
233 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River (Watertown)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
1259.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
2000–5500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Adams)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
64.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Twenty Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
13.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
110–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chautauqua Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–120 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteen Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
9.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
80–200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Canadaway Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
6.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Silver Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
3 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Buffalo Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
23.1 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cazenovia Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
17.1 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit
Tuesday, Nov 10 issued forecast details 31 rivers

Johnson Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
64.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.6°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
89.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
93.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
57.6°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–230 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cuyahoga River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
292 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
60.4°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Oak Orchard Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
322 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.5°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Genesee River

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
556.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
52.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
7000–9500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Irondequoit Creek

Model assessment: good
Projected flow:
60.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
54.2°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
180–400 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Rocky River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
61.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Conneaut Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
18.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
56.1°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
51%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chagrin River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
116.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cattaraugus Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
133.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
55.8°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
600–1200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Huron River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
39.2 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
60.7°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Ashtabula River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
14.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Watershed-scaled proxy from conneaut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–330 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Vermilion River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.3 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
90–225 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Grand River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
37.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
70.3°F; model estimate, not a target-time measurement
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
35%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1000 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
18.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
130–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Euclid Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
12.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Salmon River

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
233 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
500–1500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Black River (Watertown)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
1259.7 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
2000–5500 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Sandy Creek (Adams)

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
64.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Brandy Run

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
2.1 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
6–12 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Elk Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
7.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
35–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Walnut Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
9.4 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–150 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Twenty Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
11.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
110–350 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Crooked Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
3.6 CFS
Flow basis:
Storm-response model; Response timed from forecast rainfall periods (model estimate)
Watershed-scaled proxy from walnut-creek
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
48%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
15–40 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Chautauqua Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
10.8 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
50–120 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Eighteen Mile Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
9.9 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
80–200 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Canadaway Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
6.5 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
40–100 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Silver Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
3 CFS
Flow basis:
Recent flow trajectory model
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
30–80 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Buffalo Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
23.1 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
150–300 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Cazenovia Creek

Model assessment: fair
Projected flow:
17.1 CFS
Flow basis:
Flat flow baseline
Target river gauge
Flow target:
Nov 10, 2026 12:00 PM EST
Flow source issued:
Not recorded in this edition
Temperature estimate:
Unavailable
Derived clarity estimate:
Clear; visibility unverified
Model confidence:
32%; not a success probability
Scoring policy:
species-ranges-v2-2026-10-21
Scoring reference:
100–250 CFS (manual); not a wading limit

Methodology

This is a deterministic forecast, not an AI prediction. Flow uses AHPS when available, then storm pulse signatures, then recent log-linear flow trajectory, then a flat baseline fallback. Temperature and clarity are conservative heuristics. Confidence drops as the horizon gets farther out, especially on days 5-7.

Model confidence is a heuristic input-quality score, not a validated probability of accurate conditions, fish presence or fishing success. Historical issued forecasts keep their original values and methods.

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