Walleye
PeakWhere: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Brandy Run near Girard.
Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.
Species guide →Brandy Run near Girard
Fair
About Brandy Run near Girard
Brandy Run is a tributary monitoring location in Pennsylvania that contributes to the regional watershed system.
Real-time USGS monitoring available for flow conditions. The steelhead model reference on Brandy Run near Girard is 6–12 CFS. Basis: Per-river researched optimal range This is not a flood-stage or wading limit. The historical median flow is approximately 1 CFS, based on the available gauge history.
Current conditions (gauge observation Nov 4, 2026 11:30 PM EST): flow 2 CFS, clarity estimated from flow: clear. The Almanac Briefing rates the river FAIR as of this reading.
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Parking & river access · Members ↗
Almanac Briefing
Chrome Clock
7-Day Chart
Forecast
Reports
STORM ACTIVE
moderate
0.12" rain in the last hour.
Flow Rate
1.5
CFS
Gauge Height
1.49
ft
Water Temp
-
°F
Air Temp
62.9
°F
Estimated clarity
Clear
Estimated from flow — visibility unverified
Wind
🌬 18 mph
S
Offshore wind — mouth clarity unverified
Current water temperature unavailable: a recent sensor reading with its own source and observation time is not established.
Gauge observation: 50 minutes ago (Nov 4, 2026 11:30 PM EST)
Conditions today: Fair. Trending: rough. Storm active.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
Confidence: 0.21
No storm pulse was detected in the lookback, but the barometer dropped 0.28 inHg over the last 24 hours. Flow ranged from 1 to 2 CFS (mean 1 CFS) across the selected lookback. Water-temperature data is unavailable for the selected lookback. Pressure alone does not confirm fish activity. Light rain on the way (0.15"). Storm lifecycle says ACTIVE. 0.12" rain in the last hour. Treat the analysis above as a moving target until the pulse clears.
Lookback window Nov 2, 12 am to Nov 5, 12 am ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
No storm pulse was detected in the lookback, but the barometer dropped 0.28 inHg over the last 24 hours. Flow ranged from 1 to 2 CFS (mean 1 CFS) across the selected lookback. Water-temperature data is unavailable for the selected lookback. Pressure alone does not confirm fish activity. Light rain on the way (0.15"). Storm lifecycle says ACTIVE. 0.12" rain in the last hour. Treat the analysis above as a moving target until the pulse clears.
Lookback window Oct 29, 1 am to Nov 5, 12 am ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Almanac Briefing
Guide-level river, weather and fishing intelligence
Based on gauge observation from Wed, Nov 4 at 11:30 PM EST (50 minutes ago)
Evidence at a glance
- Last reported flow
- 1.5 CFS Configured USGS gauge for Brandy Run near Girard.
- Flow observation time
- 50 minutes ago · Within the current observation window
- Water temperature · separate sensor evidence
- UnavailableA recent sensor reading with its own source and observation time is not established.
- Assessment basis
- Clarity is estimated from flow. Ratings are model assessments.
- Issued forecast · separate from observations
- 1.6 CFS projected for Thu Nov 5, 12:00 PM EST.Issued Nov 4, 6:00 PM EST. This is a forecast, not an observed reading.
Conditions do not establish fish presence or safe wading. Before a trip, verify current gauge readings, official weather alerts, access and regulations. Sources and methodology
Low flow at 2 CFS. Estimated clarity is clear. Water assessment: fair.
Season & Run Context
Lake Erie · Lake Above Fall Temperature Band
The lake-temperature model remains above its fall band. River temperatures may already be favorable, and fish may already be in tributaries. Check local river temperatures, flow and fresh fishing reports; watch lake cooling as separate seasonal context.
Model snapshot 2026-11-04 · lake surface temperature 60.4°F
Fishing Evidence
Quiet on the report front: no shared angler reports for these rivers in the last seven days.
Review regional steelhead signals in Pulse →Flow History & Response
Last 24 hours of stored flow history: 1.4–1.7 CFS across 101 readings. First-to-last change: +0.1 CFS.
Inspect the flow history →Prior Storms · Last 14 Days
Nov 3: November 3 Ohio Storm; ended Nov 3, 1:01 AM EST; archived rainfall forecast 0.000 in; archived basin rainfall maximum 0.000 in.
Oct 31: October 31 - November 1 Ohio Storm; ended Oct 31, 8:45 PM EDT; archived rainfall forecast 0.000 in; archived basin rainfall maximum 0.000 in.
Oct 29: October 29-30 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Ohio Storm; ended Oct 29, 9:00 PM EDT; archived rainfall forecast 0.000 in; archived basin rainfall maximum 0.320 in.
Issued River Flow Outlook
Brandy Run near Girard · 1.6 CFS projected for Thu Nov 5, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 4, 6:00 PM EST)
Brandy Run near Girard · 1.5 CFS projected for Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 4, 6:00 PM EST)
Brandy Run near Girard · 3.3 CFS projected for Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 4, 6:00 PM EST)
Regional outlook: next available target per river. Individual briefings: up to three targets.
Forecast vs. Actual · Verification
Saved system-wide verification as of 2026-11-04T23:00:34+00:00: 12648 locked forecast cases, 8907 evaluated against later own-gauge readings. Pending, missing and excluded cases and errors by model, river and lead time are documented in the methodology. River results for model c5c4a91f: 60 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 0.2 CFS. Paired comparison (60 cases): model error 0.2 CFS versus 0.2 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model 395a5868: 60 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 0.5 CFS. Paired comparison (60 cases): model error 0.5 CFS versus 0.5 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model c2a5feaf: 6 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 0.7 CFS. Paired comparison (6 cases): model error 0.7 CFS versus 0.6 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model 467e92d7: 12 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 0.7 CFS. Paired comparison (12 cases): model error 0.7 CFS versus 0.5 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model ae671bd0: 90 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 0.7 CFS. Paired comparison (90 cases): model error 0.7 CFS versus 0.5 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model 48521c91: 92 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 0.1 CFS. Paired comparison (92 cases): model error 0.1 CFS versus 0.0 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model b3f961a9: 20 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 0.1 CFS. Paired comparison (20 cases): model error 0.1 CFS versus 0.1 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. This verifies flow forecasts, not catches, clarity or the entire Alley Index.
Review forecast verification →Sources & Methodology
Water ratings summarize flow, temperature and weather. Run context comes from the lake-temperature model; fishing totals come from shared angler reports. Clarity is estimated from flow, and temperature may come from a secondary gauge. Gauge timestamps and coverage describe the available history. Forecast verification measures river-flow error.
Read the methodology →Brandy Run near Girard
Today's Weather: Good
74% rain
S 14mph
Coming up: Slight Chance Light Rain then Partly Sunny
Flow Rate
1.5
CFS
·
1.49
ft
Historical percentile 50 · Typical
24h trend
↗
+7.6%
Steelhead window
6–12 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Distance
4 CFS below optimal · 1.49ft
Low water — projection flat
Weather: Rain
· 63°F
· S 18mph
29.74" →
Guide says:
Low flow at 2 CFS. Estimated clarity is clear. Water assessment: fair.
Gauge observation: Nov 4, 2026 11:30 PM EST
"Rain Is Just Commitment Weather"
Flow is below the river-specific reference range (6–12 CFS).
Flow phase: low.
Estimated clarity: clear.
Scoring reference: 6–12 CFS (manual). This is a model reference, not a flood-stage or wading assessment.
Water temperature is unavailable; this assessment has no temperature evidence.
Operational Outlook
Assessment
Fair water conditions.
Window
Put the next flow change alongside the basin weather and recent history. That’s where the useful planning picture comes together.
Storm Context
STORM ACTIVE
moderate
0.12" rain in the last hour.
The storm lifecycle indicates active weather. Gauge response may lag rainfall; monitor upstream readings and the rate of rise before assessing the water window.
- - Treat the modeled water rating as provisional during active weather.
- - Check gauges again after the storm has moved through.
- - Expect clarity, flow, and access to change quickly.
Weather Forecast & River Response
Weather forecast retrieved Nov 4, 10:01 PM EST.
Tonight: Light Rain Likely, 55°F, wind S 7 to 14 mph, precipitation chance 74%.
Thursday: Slight Chance Light Rain then Partly Sunny, 64°F, wind SW 6 to 12 mph, precipitation chance 18%.
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Chance Light Rain, 45°F, wind SW 5 mph, precipitation chance 29%.
Friday: Light Rain, 56°F, wind SW 5 to 9 mph, precipitation chance 77%.
Friday Night: Light Rain, 38°F, wind W 3 to 7 mph, precipitation chance 86%.
Low flow means less water to work with. The next rain could provide a useful pulse; watch the rainfall amounts and how this basin responds.
Conditions
Stored air temperature: 62.9°F.
Stored weather: Rain.
Stored wind: 18.4 mph S.
Rigs to consider right now
Match the current report to a setup
Centerpin Sucker Spawn Rig
Presents small egg patterns naturally through clear, pressured water where drift quality matters.
Advanced
Indicator Nymphing Rig
Suspends nymphs at a repeatable depth while giving you a visible take signal.
Intermediate
River Float Rig
Keeps a natural offering drifting at the same pace as the current instead of dragging behind your line.
Beginner
Spey & Swing Rig
Covers water efficiently when fish are willing to move for a broadside fly.
Intermediate
Fall river plan
Brandy Run near Girard other seasonal fishing targets
Use the current flow, clarity, water temperature, and sky conditions to choose among the in-season targets. Structure and low-light timing can help narrow your plan.
Northern Pike
PeakWhere: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Brandy Run near Girard.
Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.
Species guide →Current read
Flow-estimated clarity is clear; visibility is unverified. Overall rating: Fair for steelhead. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.
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7-Day Flow & Temperature
Flow distribution
1095-day history · n=2,114 · 84% confidence
Now vs history
4 CFS below optimal
Optimal window
6–12 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
1–2 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context:
Current flow is above typical for November.
November median on this river: 1 CFS
(n=59 hourly samples).
Historical flow-based clarity estimates
Clear
flow estimate
1–2 CFS typical
Stained
13–19 CFS typical
Muddy
29–56 CFS typical
Middle to upper range:
Between the historical 50th and 80th percentiles; not evidence of fishing productivity.
Sample quantiles
|
Theoretical line
Fair fit — tails diverge (67%)
Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.
Recent Angler Reports
Join to PostBeen on the Brandy Run near Girard? Share your report.
Log catches, track your season, and help other anglers dial in current conditions. Your public angler profile lives at steelheadalmanac.com/u/you.
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Sign in to see reports shared with members. Anglers choose who can read each report.
No reports are available to you for Brandy Run near Girard.
Near Brandy Run near Girard
Local Fly Shops & Guides
Featured
Owned and operated by Bob Packey, Solitude Steelhead Guide Service offers catch-and-release fly fishing in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Beginners and experienced steelheaders can choose guided walk-and-wade or float trips. The guide selects the fishing location around the run, water and weather conditions.
Steelhead Jones Guide Service
Girard, PA · 2 mi
Matt Ippoliti’s Steelhead Jones is a seasonal fly-fishing guide service. Its Great Lakes program includes Lake Erie steelhead and lake-run brown trout, alongside trout fishing in other regions as the year progresses. The business describes all trips as fly fishing with barbless hooks and catch-and-release practices, emphasizing adaptation, stewardship and respect for the fishing experience.
Loco-Loco Fishing
Fairview, PA · 4 mi
Loco-Loco Fishing offers full-service Lake Erie charters with Captain Mike Godleski for groups of one to six guests. The business lists Conneaut Harbor, Ohio, as its summer base and Walnut Creek Marina near Erie, Pennsylvania, for early spring and mid-to-late fall departures. Trips target walleye, steelhead and lake trout.
Follys End Fly Shop
Girard, PA · 4 mi
The Fly and Tackle Shop at Follys End Campground sits directly on Elk Creek in Pennsylvania. The campground’s website describes a full-line fly and tackle shop, camping supplies and half a mile of creek frontage. Steelhead fishing is promoted from early fall through April. The campground announces new ownership as of June 2026.
Tudor Hook-n-Nook
Lake City, PA · 4 mi
Tudor Hook-n-Nook in Lake City, Pennsylvania lists rods, reels, flies, bait, boots, waders and cold-weather gear. The shop also advertises rod and reel repair, guided fishing trips and Lake Erie charters, alongside camping supplies and other outdoor essentials.
FishUSA Pro Shop
Fairview, PA · 4 mi
The FishUSA Pro Shop in Fairview, Pennsylvania lets anglers view and purchase products stocked in the adjoining warehouse. Its team offers gear assistance, line spooling, fishing licenses and launch permits. Visitors can also ask for area maps, local information, weather and water conditions.
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30-Day Statistics
Min Flow
1 CFS
Max Flow
6 CFS
Avg Flow
1 CFS
Min Temp
-
Max Temp
-
Avg Temp
-
7-Day Fishing Outlook
Highest weather-only score: Friday. Check current water conditions separately; this is not a best-river or fishing-success forecast.
Daily Fishing Forecast
Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Almanac Briefing above for a complete picture.
Today — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
NWS Forecast Detail
Tonight:
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
NWS Forecast Detail
Thursday:
A slight chance of rain before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday Night:
A chance of rain after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
NWS Forecast Detail
Friday:
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 56. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night:
Rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. West wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
NWS Forecast Detail
Saturday:
Rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night:
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
NWS Forecast Detail
Sunday:
A slight chance of rain before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 53.
Sunday Night:
A chance of rain after 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
NWS Forecast Detail
Monday:
A chance of rain before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night:
Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Tuesday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
NWS Forecast Detail
Tuesday:
A slight chance of rain after 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Tuesday Night:
A slight chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Veterans Day — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
NWS Forecast Detail
Veterans Day:
A slight chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.
Forecast via NWS, updated 2 hours ago (Nov 4, 2026 10:01 PM EST). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.
Recommended Gear
Clear water + low water — finesse tippet and natural patterns first.
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More on Brandy Run near Girard
Recent Storm Events
- November 3 Ohio Storm — Nov 3, 2026
- October 31 - November 1 Ohio Storm — Oct 31, 2026
- October 29-30 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Ohio Storm — Oct 29, 2026
Species Profiles
- Steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss
