Walleye
PeakWhere: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Johnson Creek.
Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.
Species guide →Johnson Creek
Good
About Johnson Creek
Johnson Creek at Lyndonville drains 89 square miles of Niagara and Orleans Counties into Lake Ontario, a smaller-water destination that gets overshadowed by the nearby Oak Orchard system. The creek runs through tight wooded reaches with public access at the village and the Lakeside Beach State Park mouth. Best for anglers who like quieter water than the dam-controlled Lake Ontario rivers.
October through April. Rain-dependent flows. Lakeside Beach access is best in late fall and early spring. The steelhead model reference on Johnson Creek is 40–100 CFS. Basis: Per-river researched optimal range This is not a flood-stage or wading limit. The historical median flow is approximately 76 CFS, based on the available gauge history.
Current conditions (gauge observation Nov 4, 2026 2:30 AM EST): flow 33 CFS, water 55°F, clarity estimated from flow: clear. The Almanac Briefing rates the river GOOD as of this reading.
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Almanac Briefing
Chrome Clock
7-Day Chart
Forecast
Reports
STORM WATCHING
Expected: 10:00 PM EST
0.3" rain expected by 10 pm. Gauges still calm.
Flow Rate
33.4
CFS
Gauge Height
9.75
ft
Water Temp
55
°F
Air Temp
55.9
°F
Estimated clarity
Clear
Estimated from flow — visibility unverified
Wind
🌬 8 mph
SSW
Offshore wind — mouth clarity unverified
Measured turbidity
2.1
FNU
Read by the USGS sensor at Johnson Creek at Kuckville, . Clearer than the daily average on 9 days in 10, over the 282 days on record.
Lower is clearer. This is a sensor reading; the Clarity above is estimated from flow, and the two can differ.
Water temperature source: USGS 04219915 (primary sensor), observed Nov 4, 2026 2:30 AM EST.
Gauge observation: 1 hour ago (Nov 4, 2026 2:30 AM EST)
Conditions today: Good. Trending: rough. Storm watching.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
Confidence: 0.27
No storm pulse was detected in the lookback, but the barometer dropped 0.14 inHg over the last 24 hours. Flow ranged from 51 to 63 CFS (mean 58 CFS) across the selected lookback. Available water-temperature readings averaged 52°F. Pressure alone does not confirm fish activity. Light rain on the way (0.30"). Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. 0.3" rain expected by 10 pm. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.
Lookback window Nov 1, 3 am to Nov 4, 3 am ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
No storm pulse was detected in the lookback, but the barometer dropped 0.14 inHg over the last 24 hours. Flow ranged from 34 to 86 CFS (mean 58 CFS) across the selected lookback. Available water-temperature readings averaged 52°F. Pressure alone does not confirm fish activity. Light rain on the way (0.30"). Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. 0.3" rain expected by 10 pm. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.
Lookback window Oct 28, 4 am to Nov 4, 3 am ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Almanac Briefing
Guide-level river, weather and fishing intelligence
Based on gauge observation from Wed, Nov 4 at 2:30 AM EST (1 hour ago)
Evidence at a glance
- Last reported flow
- 33.4 CFS Configured USGS gauge for Johnson Creek.
- Flow observation time
- 1 hour ago · Within the current observation window
- Water temperature · separate sensor evidence
- 55°F USGS 04219915 · primary sensor Observed (1 hour ago).
- Assessment basis
- Clarity is estimated from flow. Ratings are model assessments.
- Issued forecast · separate from observations
- 54.4 CFS projected for Wed Nov 4, 12:00 PM EST.Issued Nov 3, 6:00 PM EST. This is a forecast, not an observed reading.
Conditions do not establish fish presence or safe wading. Before a trip, verify current gauge readings, official weather alerts, access and regulations. Sources and methodology
Low flow at 33 CFS. Estimated clarity is clear. Water temperature 55°F. Water assessment: good.
Season & Run Context
Lake Ontario · Fall run season · modeled
The lake-temperature model has this basin in run season. Now it’s about picking your water: follow the flow, the recovery after rain and the latest local reports.
Model snapshot 2026-11-03 · lake surface temperature 55.2°F
Fishing Evidence
Quiet on the report front: no shared angler reports for these rivers in the last seven days.
Review regional steelhead signals in Pulse →Flow History & Response
Last 24 hours of stored flow history: 33.4–73.4 CFS across 183 readings. First-to-last change: -30.3 CFS.
Inspect the flow history →Prior Storms · Last 14 Days
Oct 30: October 30 New York (Lake Ontario) Storm; ended Oct 30, 7:15 AM EDT; archived rainfall forecast 0.000 in; archived basin rainfall maximum 0.000 in.
Oct 29: October 29-30 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Ohio Storm; ended Oct 29, 9:00 PM EDT; archived rainfall forecast 0.000 in; archived basin rainfall maximum 0.320 in.
Issued River Flow Outlook
Johnson Creek · 54.4 CFS projected for Wed Nov 4, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 3, 6:00 PM EST)
Johnson Creek · 53.0 CFS projected for Thu Nov 5, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 3, 6:00 PM EST)
Johnson Creek · 52.6 CFS projected for Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 3, 6:00 PM EST)
Regional outlook: next available target per river. Individual briefings: up to three targets.
Forecast vs. Actual · Verification
Saved system-wide verification as of 2026-11-03T23:00:33+00:00: 12276 locked forecast cases, 8558 evaluated against later own-gauge readings. Pending, missing and excluded cases and errors by model, river and lead time are documented in the methodology. River results for model 48521c91: 87 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 19.1 CFS. Paired comparison (87 cases): model error 19.1 CFS versus 17.3 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model b3f961a9: 12 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 19.1 CFS. Paired comparison (12 cases): model error 19.1 CFS versus 11.1 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. This verifies flow forecasts, not catches, clarity or the entire Alley Index.
Review forecast verification →Sources & Methodology
Water ratings summarize flow, temperature and weather. Run context comes from the lake-temperature model; fishing totals come from shared angler reports. Clarity is estimated from flow, and temperature may come from a secondary gauge. Gauge timestamps and coverage describe the available history. Forecast verification measures river-flow error.
Read the methodology →Johnson Creek
Today's Weather: Fair
S 6mph
Coming up: Partly Sunny
Flow Rate
33.4
CFS
·
9.75
ft
Historical percentile 4 · Very Low
24h trend
↘
-15.7%
Steelhead window
40–100 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Distance
7 CFS below optimal · 9.75ft
Low water — projection flat
Weather: Clouds
· 56°F
· SSW 8mph
30.00" ↘
Guide says:
Low flow at 33 CFS. Estimated clarity is clear. Water temperature 55°F. Water assessment: good.
Gauge observation: Nov 4, 2026 2:30 AM EST
"Sea-Run Disorder"
Flow is below the river-specific reference range (40–100 CFS).
Flow phase: low.
Estimated clarity: clear.
Stored water temperature: 55°F.
Scoring reference: 40–100 CFS (manual). This is a model reference, not a flood-stage or wading assessment.
Operational Outlook
Assessment
Good water conditions.
Window
Put the next flow change alongside the basin weather and recent history. That’s where the useful planning picture comes together.
Storm Context
STORM WATCHING
0.3" rain expected by 10 pm. Gauges still calm.
Rain is forecast within the next 18.032663230556 hours. The modeled weather window begins around 10:00 PM EST.
- - Assess the existing window before forecast rainfall.
- - Track basin rainfall and radar coverage.
- - Verify the latest gauge observation before scheduling.
Weather Forecast & River Response
Weather forecast retrieved Nov 4, 1:01 AM EST.
Overnight: Mostly Cloudy, 56°F, wind S 6 mph, precipitation chance 0%.
Wednesday: Partly Sunny, 77°F, wind SE 2 to 6 mph, precipitation chance 3%.
Wednesday Night: Rain Showers, 58°F, wind S 7 to 10 mph, precipitation chance 93%.
Thursday: Rain Showers Likely, 67°F, wind SW 8 to 14 mph, precipitation chance 70%.
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy, 49°F, wind SW 5 to 8 mph, precipitation chance 10%.
Low flow means less water to work with. The next rain could provide a useful pulse; watch the rainfall amounts and how this basin responds.
Conditions
Stored air temperature: 55.9°F.
Stored weather: Clouds.
Stored wind: 8.2 mph SSW.
Rigs to consider right now
Match the current report to a setup
Centerpin Sucker Spawn Rig
Presents small egg patterns naturally through clear, pressured water where drift quality matters.
Advanced
Indicator Nymphing Rig
Suspends nymphs at a repeatable depth while giving you a visible take signal.
Intermediate
River Float Rig
Keeps a natural offering drifting at the same pace as the current instead of dragging behind your line.
Beginner
Spey & Swing Rig
Covers water efficiently when fish are willing to move for a broadside fly.
Intermediate
Fall river plan
Johnson Creek other seasonal fishing targets
The river is in a transition window. Warm afternoons can turn on smallmouth and panfish while cooler pockets still matter.
Northern Pike
PeakWhere: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Johnson Creek.
Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.
Species guide →Current read
Water temp 55°F. Flow-estimated clarity is clear; visibility is unverified. Overall rating: Good for steelhead. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.
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7-Day Flow & Temperature
Flow distribution
1095-day history · n=2,109 · 84% confidence
Now vs history
7 CFS below optimal
Optimal window
40–100 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
58–95 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context:
Current flow is below typical for November.
November median on this river: 58 CFS
(n=80 hourly samples).
Historical flow-based clarity estimates
Clear
flow estimate
55–81 CFS typical
Stained
107–138 CFS typical
Muddy
367–986 CFS typical
Low:
Below the historical 25th percentile.
Sample quantiles
|
Theoretical line
Good fit (78%)
Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.
Recent Angler Reports
Join to PostBeen on the Johnson Creek? Share your report.
Log catches, track your season, and help other anglers dial in current conditions. Your public angler profile lives at steelheadalmanac.com/u/you.
- Always free
- All 31 Alley rivers
- 30 seconds to join
Sign in to see reports shared with members. Anglers choose who can read each report.
No reports are available to you for Johnson Creek.
Near Johnson Creek
Local Fly Shops & Guides
Featured
Creek Chubs Guide Service
Waterport, NY · 3 mi
Captain Hayden London’s Creek Chubs Guide Service offers full-day fishing trips in Western New York, focusing on salmon, steelhead and brown trout. Its website highlights Oak Orchard Creek and Sandy Creek, with fly fishing, drift techniques and conventional tackle tailored to the guest’s experience and seasonal conditions.
Oak Orchard Canoe Kayak Experts
Waterport, NY · 3 mi
Largest paddle shop between Rochester and Niagara Falls. Rentals, lessons, and river trips.
Oak Orchard Tackle & Lodge
Albion, NY · 4 mi
Oak Orchard Tackle & Lodge serves anglers from Carlton, near Albion on Lake Ontario’s south shore. Its website features fly-fishing gear, conventional tributary drift tackle, float-fishing supplies and shore-casting tackle for trout, salmon and other species. Licorice Lodge and Garage Lodge provide lodging options alongside the tackle shop.
guide
Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing offers year-round, catch-and-release fly fishing on Lake Ontario tributaries, Western New York trout streams and lakes. Trips span salmon, trout, steelhead, pike and smallmouth bass, with an emphasis on conversation, shared experience and time on the water.
Captain Bob’s Outdoors
East Amherst, NY · 31 mi
Captain Bob’s Outdoors offers fishing lessons, group outings and seasonal steelhead guiding in Western New York. Its website emphasizes bringing families together and helping anglers learn casting, baiting, reeling and fish handling. Captain Steve Hawkins is the published contact for planning a trip, with equipment and bait included in the advertised services.
High Falls & Genesee Brew House
Rochester, NY · 35 mi
96-ft urban waterfall in downtown Rochester. Rooftop pint at one of America's oldest breweries.
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30-Day Statistics
Min Flow
-7 CFS
Max Flow
147 CFS
Avg Flow
76 CFS
Min Temp
49.5°F
Max Temp
55.8°F
Avg Temp
51.9°F
7-Day Fishing Outlook
Quantitative precipitation coverage is incomplete. Rain chances do not establish rainfall amounts or future river flows.
Highest weather-only score: Wednesday. Check current water conditions separately; this is not a best-river or fishing-success forecast.
A cooling air-temperature trend is forecast. This alone does not establish a cold front, water-temperature change or fish behavior.
Daily Fishing Forecast
Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Almanac Briefing above for a complete picture.
Overnight — Angler's Report
fair fishing- No rain amount is forecast in these periods. Releases, upstream rainfall and other factors can still change river flow.
NWS Forecast Detail
Overnight:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind around 6 mph.
Wednesday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
NWS Forecast Detail
Wednesday:
Partly sunny. High near 77, with temperatures falling to around 70 in the afternoon. Southeast wind 2 to 6 mph.
Wednesday Night:
Rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
NWS Forecast Detail
Thursday:
Rain showers likely before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday Night:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Friday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
NWS Forecast Detail
Friday:
A slight chance of rain showers after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night:
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday — Angler's Report
good fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
NWS Forecast Detail
Saturday:
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Northwest wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night:
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday — Angler's Report
good fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
NWS Forecast Detail
Sunday:
A slight chance of rain showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 53.
Sunday Night:
A slight chance of rain showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday — Angler's Report
fair fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
- Breezy conditions (15 mph W) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.
NWS Forecast Detail
Monday:
A slight chance of rain showers before 10am, then a chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night:
A chance of rain before 7pm, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday — Angler's Report
fair fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
- Breezy conditions (18 mph W) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.
NWS Forecast Detail
Tuesday:
A slight chance of rain showers before 7am, then a slight chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.
Forecast via NWS, updated 2 hours ago (Nov 4, 2026 1:01 AM EST). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.
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More on Johnson Creek
Recent Storm Events
- October 30 New York (Lake Ontario) Storm — Oct 30, 2026
- October 29-30 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Ohio Storm — Oct 29, 2026
- October 11-12 Alley Storm — Oct 11, 2026
Species Profiles
- Steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss
- Brown Trout Salmo trutta
