Wed, Nov 4
44
95% model confidence
The Steelhead Alley Index
Steelhead ModeWednesday, November 4, 2026
The Steelhead Alley Index models steelhead-season fishing conditions across 31 Great Lakes tributaries on a 0–100 scale, with separate forecasts up to 7 days out. Index updates are scheduled hourly. The score combines available river flow, water temperature, flow-derived clarity estimates, weather, barometric pressure, and storm state. Proxy gauges and estimates are identified on each river page; this is not a visibility measurement or a wading-safety assessment.
How fishability is scored · How the forecast is built
47
Average
Underlying score: 39/100
· Fixed published scale with a blown-water adjustment
Assessment Nov 4, 2026 8:00 AM EST
▲ +7
vs. yesterday
The week ahead
7-Day Alley Index Forecast
Compare projected regional conditions on the same 0–100 scale as today’s Index. For your river’s weather, wind, rain and water outlook, open the River & Weather Forecast.
Issued Nov 4, 2026 5:00 AM EST. Model confidence describes inputs; it is not a probability of fishing success.
Thu, Nov 5
57
49% model confidence
Fri, Nov 6
57
48% model confidence
Sat, Nov 7
52
45% model confidence
Sun, Nov 8
49
44% model confidence
Mon, Nov 9
49
42% model confidence
Tue, Nov 10
44
41% model confidence
Issued forecast · Thursday, Nov 5, 2026
57
49% model confidence
Issued Nov 4, 2026 5:00 AM EST. Confidence is a model heuristic, not a success probability.
Storm Watch — by region
Four state+lake buckets · auto-refreshes when conditions change
PA · Erie
QuietAll quiet — no rain, no alerts, no rapid rises.
NY · Erie
QuietAll quiet — no rain, no alerts, no rapid rises.
NY · Ontario
QuietAll quiet — no rain, no alerts, no rapid rises.
My Alley
Your Subset Score
Personal stat — separate from the official Alley Index above. Not for citing externally.
·
rivers
Ranked vs. visible history
Today's Story
Things are improving. Today's Steelhead Alley Index sits at 47 (Average). That's 7 points up from yesterday — conditions firmed overnight.
Leading the day: Conneaut Creek, Cattaraugus Creek, Irondequoit Creek. Today is the best November reading on record so far.
Leading the day: Conneaut Creek, Cattaraugus Creek, Irondequoit Creek. Today is the best November reading on record so far.
By Technique & Region
Published 0–100 scale · regional river sets
Fly
47
Float
47
Erie Tribs
44
Ontario Tribs
57
Top Today
- Conneaut Creek 64
- Cattaraugus Creek 64
- Irondequoit Creek 64
- Johnson Creek 64
- Genesee River 55
Low scores or unavailable assessments
- No rivers currently match the low-score list criteria.
All 31 Rivers — by State
| River | Rating | Score |
|---|---|---|
|
Ohio
11 rivers · avg 39
|
||
| Conneaut Creek | good | 64 |
| Cuyahoga River | fair | 45 |
| Huron River | fair | 45 |
| Rocky River | fair | 36 |
| Vermilion River | fair | 36 |
| Grand River | fair | 36 |
| Brandy Run | fair | 36 |
| Black River | fair | 36 |
| Euclid Creek | fair | 36 |
| Ashtabula River | fair | 27 |
| Chagrin River | fair | 27 |
|
Pennsylvania
4 rivers · avg 34
|
||
| Elk Creek | fair | 36 |
| Walnut Creek | fair | 36 |
| Twenty Mile Creek | fair | 36 |
| Crooked Creek | fair | 27 |
|
New York — Lake Erie
7 rivers · avg 36
|
||
| Cattaraugus Creek | good | 64 |
| Chautauqua Creek | fair | 36 |
| Canadaway Creek | fair | 36 |
| Silver Creek | fair | 36 |
| Eighteen Mile Creek | fair | 27 |
| Buffalo Creek | fair | 27 |
| Cazenovia Creek | fair | 27 |
|
New York — Lake Ontario
9 rivers · avg 45
|
||
| Irondequoit Creek | good | 64 |
| Johnson Creek | good | 64 |
| Genesee River | good | 55 |
| Sandy Creek (Hamlin) | good | 55 |
| Oak Orchard Creek | fair | 45 |
| Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) | fair | 45 |
| Salmon River | fair | 27 |
| Black River (Watertown) | fair | 27 |
| Sandy Creek (Adams) | fair | 27 |
Methodology. The published Alley Index uses a fixed, piecewise-linear mapping of the underlying river-condition composite onto a 0–100 scale, with an adjustment when more than 10% of rivers have blown-water conditions. It is not a historical percentile or a probability of success. Bands: Excellent 90+, Good 70–89, Average 30–69, Poor 10–29, Blown 0–9. Updates are scheduled hourly; the displayed assessment time determines freshness. Seasonal scoring follows the active species mode.
Fly and Float currently use identical inputs and equal the headline. Erie and Ontario apply the same scale and high-water adjustment to each region. Individual river scores remain raw condition scores. Your Subset is a separate percentile ranking against only the visible chart history; changing the chart range can change that personal rank.
JSON API: /index/api
