Smallmouth Bass
Where: boulder runs, bridge shade, pool tails, creek-mouth rock, and lower-river current breaks on Eighteenmile Creek.
Move: tubes, Ned rigs, small jerkbaits, poppers, and crayfish-colored streamers.
Species guide →Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
Good
About Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
Eighteenmile Creek at Olcott on the Niagara County Lake Ontario shore drains 86 square miles into the harbor at Burt Dam. The Burt Dam fishery is one of the best-known Lake Ontario steelhead destinations -- the powerhouse pool stacks fish through winter, and the access road brings anglers to the water within fifty feet of their cars. Crowded weekends; weekday solitude is achievable.
September through April with peaks at the fall run (October-December) and the spring (March-April). Dam pool holds fish through winter regardless of upstream flow. The optimal fishing flow on Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) is 100–230 CFS — flows above this range are typically too high and stained, flows below run low and clear. The river's long-term median flow is approximately 119 CFS, computed from the last several years of USGS gauge readings.
Current conditions (live, updated every 15 minutes): flow 121 CFS, water 70°F, clarity clear. Steelhead Almanac's Guide's Report rates the river GOOD as of this reading.
STORM WATCHING
SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm.
Storm signals active in region.
Flow Rate
121
CFS
Gauge Height
6.41
ft
Water Temp
70
°F
Air Temp
66.5
°F
Clarity
Clear
Wind
🌬 Calm
≤5 mph
Last updated: 12 minutes ago (10:00 PM EDT)
Conditions today: Good. Trending: improving. Storm watching.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
Three days of nothing. 120 CFS held within 42%, water sat at 70°F, barometer barely moved. These are the days where the lake just shrugs at us. If the bite is on, no obvious reason. If it's off, also no obvious reason. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.
Lookback window Sep 10, 10 pm to Sep 13, 10 pm ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
Three days of nothing. 131 CFS held within 95%, water sat at 71°F, barometer barely moved. These are the days where the lake just shrugs at us. If the bite is on, no obvious reason. If it's off, also no obvious reason. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.
Lookback window Sep 6, 10 pm to Sep 13, 10 pm ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
| Gauge | Flow (CFS) | Height (ft) | Water Temp | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eighteenmile Creek at Newfane (primary) | 121 | 6.41 | - | 13 minutes ago 10:00 PM EDT |
| Eighteenmile Creek at Burt | 68 | 2.93 | 70°F | 13 minutes ago 10:00 PM EDT |
Guide's Report
Based on current conditions as of Sun, Sep 13 at 10:00 PM EDT (12 minutes ago)
Running 121 CFS, water is clear, 70°F — prime summer feeding temp. Solid window. Put in the work and you'll be rewarded. Crystal clear — long leaders and small flies. Bite may slow — pressure rising. Rain Is Just Commitment Weather.
Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
Today's Weather: Good
30% rain
NW 14mph
Coming up: Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Flow Rate
0
CFS
·
6.41
ft
38th percentile · Typical
Summer mode - skinny but moving
24h trend
↘
-10.7%
Summer fishability window
131–348 CFS
Current-month middle flow band for warm-water fishing
72h movement
falling (-11%)
Distance
skinny but moving · 6.41ft
Falls below range by
Tue 2:14pm
(~100 CFS)
Rain
· 67°F
· N 5mph
29.94" ↗
Guide says:
Running 121 CFS, water is clear, 70°F — prime summer feeding temp. Solid window. Put in the work and you'll be rewarded. Crystal clear — long leaders and small flies. Bite may slow — pressure rising. Rain Is Just Commitment Weather.
"Not a Phase, Mom. A Discipline."
Flow is low — fish are stacked in the deepest pools and runs. Approach carefully, they spook easy.
Clear water — ideal for visual hunters like smallmouth. Long leaders, natural colors, and finesse presentations like drop-shots will produce.
Water at 70°F — prime summer pattern. Smallmouth Bass are highly active and aggressive across all techniques.
How to Fish It
Technique
This is tube and drop-shot weather. Drag tubes or drop-shots over rocky structures, reefs, and current seams. Active retrieve will trigger strikes.
Fly/Lure Selection
Clear water demands finesse. 6-8lb fluoro, natural colored tubes (watermelon, green pumpkin), 3-inch drop-shot worms, or small swimbaits.
Where to Fish
Target boulder runs, bedrock pools, bridge pilings, and shaded banks where river smallies find cover.
Timing
Dawn and dusk windows are prime. Get out early before the sun is high, or fish the last 90 minutes of light.
Storm Context
STORM WATCHING
SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm.
Rain is in the forecast window. Gauges may look innocent right now, but this is the part where the river starts making plans without telling us.
Storm signals active in region.
- - Front-load the trip before the weather arrives.
- - Bring rain gear and keep an eye on radar.
- - Re-check the gauge before committing to a longer drive.
What's Coming
Heavy rain is incoming — fish NOW. Current conditions are fishable but the river will blow out. This is your window.
Conditions
Rain — if it's light, fish are biting. If it's getting heavy, fish the front edge before flows spike.
Rigs to consider right now
Match the current report to a setup
Ned Rig
Catches fish that are willing to eat but not interested in chasing something loud.
Beginner
Neko Rig
Adds a different fall and bottom posture when Ned or wacky presentations are getting ignored.
Intermediate
Texas Rig
Gets a soft plastic through cover without turning every cast into salad.
Beginner
Drop Shot Rig
Keeps the bait in the strike zone without dragging it into every rock on the bottom.
Intermediate
Fall river plan
Eighteenmile Creek summer fishing targets
Water temperature is in the active warmwater range. Expect bass and panfish to feed around current breaks, rock, and shade.
Walleye
Where: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper summer basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Eighteenmile Creek.
Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.
Species guide →Panfish
Where: docks, weed edges, ponds, marina slips, brush, and shaded shoreline structure on Eighteenmile Creek.
Move: small jigs, waxworms, micro poppers, and slip floats for kids or fast action.
Species guide →Northern Pike
Where: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Eighteenmile Creek.
Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.
Species guide →Current read
Water temp 70°F. Clarity is clear. Overall rating: Good for smallmouth bass. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.
Summer FAQ
What can I fish for on Eighteenmile Creek in summer?
Focus on the warm-water species shown above, then use the live flow, clarity, and temperature read to choose shade, rock, current breaks, creek mouths, lakefront structure, and low-light windows.
Steelhead care
Should I target steelhead on Eighteenmile Creek in summer?
Usually no. When water is warm, shift to smallmouth, walleye, panfish, pike, or another summer target instead of pressuring stressed trout.
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7-Day Flow & Temperature
Flow distribution
1095-day history · n=1,932 · 83% confidence
Now vs history
In the sweet spot
Optimal window
100–230 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
102–169 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context:
Current flow is below typical for September.
September median on this river: 174 CFS
(n=295 hourly samples).
Clarity vs flow ranges
Steelhead Green
likely now
100–132 CFS typical
Stained
273–339 CFS typical
Muddy
563–978 CFS typical
Below average:
Quieter than usual — stealth matters.
Sample quantiles
|
Theoretical line
Fair fit — tails diverge (67%)
Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.
Recent Angler Reports
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Near Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
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30-Day Statistics
Min Flow
78 CFS
Max Flow
745 CFS
Avg Flow
185 CFS
Min Temp
69.4°F
Max Temp
77.4°F
Avg Temp
72.2°F
7-Day Fishing Outlook
Substantial precipitation in the forecast. Rivers will rise — fish the front end before conditions deteriorate.
Best day to fish: Today — Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
Wednesday is the day before rain moves in — barometric pressure drop often triggers aggressive feeding. Don't miss it.
Daily Fishing Forecast
Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Guide's Report above for a complete picture.
Today — Angler's Report
good fishing- Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
NWS Forecast Detail
Tonight:
A chance of rain showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Northwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday — Angler's Report
good fishing- Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
- Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.
NWS Forecast Detail
Monday:
A chance of rain showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. North wind 6 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. South wind 1 to 7 mph.
Tuesday — Angler's Report
good fishing- Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
- Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.
NWS Forecast Detail
Tuesday:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night:
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday — Angler's Report
good fishing- Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
- Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.
NWS Forecast Detail
Wednesday:
A chance of rain showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night:
A chance of rain showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Northeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday — Angler's Report
fair fishing- Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
- Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.
NWS Forecast Detail
Thursday:
A chance of rain showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Northeast wind 3 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night:
A slight chance of rain showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Friday — Angler's Report
good fishing- Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.
NWS Forecast Detail
Friday:
A slight chance of rain showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Friday Night:
A slight chance of rain showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Saturday — Angler's Report
good fishing- Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
- Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.
NWS Forecast Detail
Saturday:
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night:
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday — Angler's Report
good fishing- Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
- Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.
NWS Forecast Detail
Sunday:
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Forecast via NWS, updated 2 hours ago (8:01 PM EDT). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.
Recommended Gear
Clear water + low water + warmer temps — finesse tippet and natural patterns first.
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More on Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
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