Walleye
PeakWhere: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Eighteenmile Creek.
Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.
Species guide →Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
Fair
About Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
Eighteenmile Creek at Olcott on the Niagara County Lake Ontario shore drains 86 square miles into the harbor at Burt Dam. The Burt Dam fishery is one of the best-known Lake Ontario steelhead destinations -- the powerhouse pool stacks fish through winter, and the access road brings anglers to the water within fifty feet of their cars. Crowded weekends; weekday solitude is achievable.
September through April with peaks at the fall run (October-December) and the spring (March-April). Dam pool holds fish through winter regardless of upstream flow. The steelhead model reference on Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) is 100–230 CFS. Basis: Per-river researched optimal range This is not a flood-stage or wading limit. The historical median flow is approximately 113 CFS, based on the available gauge history.
Current conditions (gauge observation Nov 5, 2026 9:15 PM EST): flow 89 CFS, water 58.3°F, clarity estimated from flow: clear. The Almanac Briefing rates the river FAIR as of this reading.
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Almanac Briefing
Chrome Clock
7-Day Chart
Forecast
Reports
Flow Rate
89.4
CFS
Gauge Height
6.07
ft
Water Temp
58.3
°F
Air Temp
56.9
°F
Estimated clarity
Clear
Estimated from flow — visibility unverified
Wind
🌬 9 mph
SW
Offshore wind — mouth clarity unverified
Measured turbidity
4.4
FNU
Read by the USGS sensor at Eighteenmile Creek at Burt, 4.3 miles from this river's main gauge, . Clearer than the daily average on 8 days in 10, over the 282 days on record.
Lower is clearer. This is a sensor reading; the Clarity above is estimated from flow, and the two can differ.
Water temperature source: USGS 04219768 (secondary sensor; location may differ), observed Nov 5, 2026 9:00 PM EST.
Gauge observation: 21 minutes ago (Nov 5, 2026 9:15 PM EST)
Conditions today: Fair. Trending: holding steady.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
Confidence: 0.3
No storm pulse was detected in the selected lookback. Flow ranged from 87 to 93 CFS (mean 90 CFS) across the selected lookback. Available water-temperature readings averaged 56°F. This describes available conditions, not observed fish activity. Light rain on the way (0.30").
Lookback window Nov 2, 9 pm to Nov 5, 9 pm ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
No storm pulse was detected in the selected lookback. Flow ranged from 87 to 107 CFS (mean 94 CFS) across the selected lookback. Available water-temperature readings averaged 55°F. This describes available conditions, not observed fish activity. Light rain on the way (0.30").
Lookback window Oct 29, 10 pm to Nov 5, 9 pm ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
| Gauge | Flow (CFS) | Height (ft) | Water Temp | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eighteenmile Creek at Newfane (primary) | 89 | 6.07 | - | 21 minutes ago Nov 5, 2026 9:15 PM EST |
| Eighteenmile Creek at Burt | 102 | 3.02 | 58.3°F | 36 minutes ago Nov 5, 2026 9:00 PM EST |
Almanac Briefing
Guide-level river, weather and fishing intelligence
Based on gauge observation from Thu, Nov 5 at 9:15 PM EST (21 minutes ago)
Evidence at a glance
- Last reported flow
- 89.4 CFS Configured USGS gauge for Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara).
- Flow observation time
- 21 minutes ago · Within the current observation window
- Water temperature · separate sensor evidence
- 58.3°F USGS 04219768 · secondary sensor; location may differ Observed (36 minutes ago).
- Assessment basis
- Clarity is estimated from flow. Ratings are model assessments.
- Issued forecast · separate from observations
- 91.7 CFS projected for Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST.Issued Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST. This is a forecast, not an observed reading.
Conditions do not establish fish presence or safe wading. Before a trip, verify current gauge readings, official weather alerts, access and regulations. Sources and methodology
Low flow at 89 CFS. Estimated clarity is clear. Water temperature 58.3°F. Water assessment: fair.
Season & Run Context
Lake Ontario · Fall run season · modeled
The lake-temperature model has this basin in run season. Now it’s about picking your water: follow the flow, the recovery after rain and the latest local reports.
Model snapshot 2026-11-05 · lake surface temperature 55.6°F
Fishing Evidence
Quiet on the report front: no shared angler reports for these rivers in the last seven days.
Review regional steelhead signals in Pulse →Flow History & Response
Last 24 hours of stored flow history: 87.4–91.4 CFS across 111 readings. First-to-last change: +0.0 CFS.
Inspect the flow history →Prior Storms · Last 14 Days
Oct 30: October 30 New York (Lake Ontario) Storm; ended Oct 30, 7:15 AM EDT; archived rainfall forecast 0.000 in; archived basin rainfall maximum 0.000 in.
Oct 29: October 29-30 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Ohio Storm; ended Oct 29, 9:00 PM EDT; archived rainfall forecast 0.000 in; archived basin rainfall maximum 0.320 in.
Issued River Flow Outlook
Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) · 91.7 CFS projected for Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST)
Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) · 91.4 CFS projected for Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST)
Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) · 91.4 CFS projected for Sun Nov 8, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST)
Regional outlook: next available target per river. Individual briefings: up to three targets.
Forecast vs. Actual · Verification
Saved system-wide verification as of 2026-11-05T23:00:33+00:00: 13020 locked forecast cases, 9256 evaluated against later own-gauge readings. Pending, missing and excluded cases and errors by model, river and lead time are documented in the methodology. River results for model c5c4a91f: 60 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 36.7 CFS. Paired comparison (60 cases): model error 36.7 CFS versus 14.8 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model 395a5868: 60 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 32.9 CFS. Paired comparison (60 cases): model error 32.9 CFS versus 19.1 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model c2a5feaf: 6 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 12.6 CFS. Paired comparison (6 cases): model error 12.6 CFS versus 25.8 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model 467e92d7: 12 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 32.9 CFS. Paired comparison (12 cases): model error 32.9 CFS versus 30.0 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model ae671bd0: 90 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 14.2 CFS. Paired comparison (90 cases): model error 14.2 CFS versus 15.5 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model 48521c91: 95 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 10.1 CFS. Paired comparison (95 cases): model error 10.1 CFS versus 13.7 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model b3f961a9: 30 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 6.7 CFS. Paired comparison (30 cases): model error 6.7 CFS versus 9.5 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. This verifies flow forecasts, not catches, clarity or the entire Alley Index.
Review forecast verification →Sources & Methodology
Water ratings summarize flow, temperature and weather. Run context comes from the lake-temperature model; fishing totals come from shared angler reports. Clarity is estimated from flow, and temperature may come from a secondary gauge. Gauge timestamps and coverage describe the available history. Forecast verification measures river-flow error.
Read the methodology →Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
Today's Weather: Good
29% rain
SW 8mph
Coming up: Rain Showers Likely
Flow Rate
89.4
CFS
·
6.07
ft
Historical percentile 24 · Low
Warm-water flow reference — stable flow
24h trend
—
+1.9%
Warm-water flow reference
89–95 CFS
Current-month middle flow band; used May–October or above 58°F, not a steelhead rating
72h movement
stable (-4.3%)
Status
stable flow · 6.07ft
Weather: Clouds
· 57°F
· SW 9mph
29.80" →
Flow reference only: Stable flow.
This historical band does not establish flood stage, water visibility or fishing success.
Steelhead timing projections use a different range and are not overlaid here.
Gauge observation: Nov 5, 2026 9:15 PM EST
"Forty Degrees Is Shorts Weather Here"
Flow is below the river-specific reference range (100–230 CFS).
Flow phase: low.
Estimated clarity: clear.
Stored water temperature: 58.3°F.
Scoring reference: 100–230 CFS (manual). This is a model reference, not a flood-stage or wading assessment.
Operational Outlook
Assessment
Fair water conditions.
Window
Put the next flow change alongside the basin weather and recent history. That’s where the useful planning picture comes together.
Weather Forecast & River Response
Weather forecast retrieved Nov 5, 7:02 PM EST.
Tonight: Chance Rain Showers, 47°F, wind SW 3 to 8 mph, precipitation chance 29%.
Friday: Rain Showers Likely, 58°F, wind SW 6 mph, precipitation chance 61%.
Friday Night: Rain Showers Likely, 39°F, wind W 2 to 6 mph, precipitation chance 74%.
Saturday: Rain Showers, 54°F, wind W 6 to 9 mph, precipitation chance 79%.
Saturday Night: Rain Showers, 37°F, wind NW 9 mph, precipitation chance 79%.
Low flow means less water to work with. The next rain could provide a useful pulse; watch the rainfall amounts and how this basin responds.
Conditions
Stored air temperature: 56.9°F.
Stored weather: Clouds.
Stored wind: 8.8 mph SW.
Rigs to consider right now
Match the current report to a setup
Centerpin Sucker Spawn Rig
Presents small egg patterns naturally through clear, pressured water where drift quality matters.
Advanced
Indicator Nymphing Rig
Suspends nymphs at a repeatable depth while giving you a visible take signal.
Intermediate
River Float Rig
Keeps a natural offering drifting at the same pace as the current instead of dragging behind your line.
Beginner
Spey & Swing Rig
Covers water efficiently when fish are willing to move for a broadside fly.
Intermediate
Fall river plan
Eighteenmile Creek other seasonal fishing targets
The river is in a transition window. Warm afternoons can turn on smallmouth and panfish while cooler pockets still matter.
Northern Pike
PeakWhere: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Eighteenmile Creek.
Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.
Species guide →Current read
Water temp 58.3°F. Flow-estimated clarity is clear; visibility is unverified. Overall rating: Fair for steelhead. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.
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7-Day Flow & Temperature
Flow distribution
1095-day history · n=2,106 · 84% confidence
Now vs history
11 CFS below optimal
Optimal window
100–230 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
93–135 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context:
Current flow is below typical for November.
November median on this river: 93 CFS
(n=105 hourly samples).
Historical flow-based clarity estimates
Clear
flow estimate
96–134 CFS typical
Stained
256–372 CFS typical
Muddy
619–1,269 CFS typical
Low:
Below the historical 25th percentile.
Sample quantiles
|
Theoretical line
Good fit (83%)
Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.
Recent Angler Reports
Join to PostBeen on the Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)? Share your report.
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No reports are available to you for Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara).
Near Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
Local Fly Shops & Guides
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Niagara Outfitters
Lewiston, NY · 18 mi
Kayak rentals and guided tours on the Lower Niagara River. All gear included.
Brookdog Fishing Company
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Brookdog Fishing Company offers fishing charters and guided outings around Buffalo, the Niagara region and nearby Great Lakes waters. Co-founders Ryan Shea and Nathan Carr share a lifelong interest in fishing, with trips shaped by the season and the species guests want to pursue. The website publishes regular regional fishing reports and trip-planning information.
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109-acre park with gorge rim trail and staircase to whirlpool rapids.
Maid of the Mist
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Iconic boat ride into the mist basin at the base of the falls.
Niagara Falls State Park
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America's oldest state park. Views of American, Bridal Veil, and Horseshoe Falls.
Explore Eighteenmile Creek and nearby
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30-Day Statistics
Min Flow
87 CFS
Max Flow
170 CFS
Avg Flow
120 CFS
Min Temp
53.8°F
Max Temp
59.2°F
Avg Temp
55°F
7-Day Fishing Outlook
Quantitative precipitation coverage is incomplete. Rain chances do not establish rainfall amounts or future river flows.
Highest weather-only score: Friday. Check current water conditions separately; this is not a best-river or fishing-success forecast.
Daily Fishing Forecast
Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Almanac Briefing above for a complete picture.
Today — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
NWS Forecast Detail
Tonight:
A chance of rain showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
NWS Forecast Detail
Friday:
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday Night:
Rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 39. West wind 2 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
NWS Forecast Detail
Saturday:
Rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 54. West wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night:
Rain showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Northwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
- Breezy conditions (20 mph W) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.
NWS Forecast Detail
Sunday:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. West wind 9 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Sunday Night:
A slight chance of rain showers after 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. West wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Monday — Angler's Report
fair fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
- Breezy conditions (16 mph SW) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.
NWS Forecast Detail
Monday:
A slight chance of rain showers before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. West wind 10 to 14 mph.
Monday Night:
Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.
Tuesday — Angler's Report
fair fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
- Breezy conditions (18 mph W) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.
NWS Forecast Detail
Tuesday:
A slight chance of rain showers between 7am and 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Tuesday Night:
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Veterans Day — Angler's Report
good fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
NWS Forecast Detail
Veterans Day:
Partly sunny, with a high near 54.
Wednesday — Angler's Report
fair fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
NWS Forecast Detail
Wednesday Night:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Thursday — Angler's Report
good fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
NWS Forecast Detail
Thursday:
Partly sunny, with a high near 50.
Forecast via NWS, updated 2 hours ago (Nov 5, 2026 7:02 PM EST). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.
Recommended Gear
Clear water + low water + warmer temps — finesse tippet and natural patterns first.
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More on Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
Deep Dives
- Ice, Steel, and the Niagara: A Winter Steelhead Fishing Adventure
- Silver Bullets in the Snow: Shore Fishing the Niagara River for Trophy Trout
- World-Class Steelhead in the Shadow of Niagara Falls: A Fly Fisher's Hidden Paradise
- Steelhead on the Niagara: Chasing Trophy Fish on One of America's Most Legendary Rivers
Recent Storm Events
- October 30 New York (Lake Ontario) Storm — Oct 30, 2026
- October 29-30 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Ohio Storm — Oct 29, 2026
- October 11-12 Alley Storm — Oct 11, 2026
Species Profiles
- Steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss
- Brown Trout Salmo trutta
