Oak Orchard Creek

Fair

About Oak Orchard Creek

Oak Orchard Creek at Waterport drains 239 square miles of Orleans County into Lake Ontario below the iconic Waterport Dam, a managed-release fishery that sustains 600-1,100 cfs through steelhead season. The Waterport powerhouse pool is the well-known destination -- big browns, steelhead, and the occasional Atlantic from the Salmon River reintroduction stack below the dam. Crowded in prime windows; the upstream reaches are quieter.

September through May with steelhead peaks at the October-December push and the March-April spring run. Powerhouse pool holds fish through winter regardless of weather. Sustained dam releases. The optimal fishing flow on Oak Orchard Creek is 600–1,100 CFS — flows above this range are typically too high and stained, flows below run low and clear. The river's long-term median flow is approximately 584 CFS, computed from the last several years of USGS gauge readings.

Current conditions (live, updated every 15 minutes): flow 759 CFS, water 71.6°F, clarity clear. Steelhead Almanac's Guide's Report rates the river FAIR as of this reading.

STORM WATCHING

SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm.

Storm signals active in region.

Flow Rate
759
CFS
Gauge Height
17.37
ft
Water Temp
71.6
°F
Air Temp
62.9
°F
Clarity
Clear
Wind
🌬 16 mph
NW
Onshore — mouth mud likely

Last updated: 4 minutes ago (11:00 PM EDT)

Conditions today: Fair. Trending: holding steady. Storm watching.

Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending

Three days of nothing. 899 CFS held within 46%, water sat at 71°F, barometer barely moved. These are the days where the lake just shrugs at us. If the bite is on, no obvious reason. If it's off, also no obvious reason. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.

Lookback window Sep 10, 11 pm to Sep 13, 11 pm ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending

Over the last three days, 0.40" of rain landed and the Oak Orchard Creek answered. Flow climbed from 892 to 1,420 CFS over 20.0 hours, then started its drop-back. Water temp shifted dropped by 2.5°F — that's the storm's footprint. Quick recovery — the river's already back. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.

Lookback window Sep 6, 11 pm to Sep 13, 11 pm ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Gauge Flow (CFS) Height (ft) Water Temp Updated
Oak Orchard Creek at The Bridges (primary) 759 17.37 71.6°F 4 minutes ago 11:00 PM EDT
Oak Orchard Creek near Kenyonville 900 3.49 70.2°F 1 day ago 3:00 PM EDT
Oak Orchard Creek near Shelby 515 9.75 68.5°F 4 minutes ago 11:00 PM EDT

Guide's Report

fair smallmouth bass fishing

Based on current conditions as of Sun, Sep 13 at 11:00 PM EDT (4 minutes ago)

Running 759 CFS, water is clear, 72°F — prime summer feeding temp. Bring patience and low expectations — you might surprise yourself. Crystal clear — long leaders and small flies. Bite may slow — pressure rising. The Bite Starts When You Have to Leave.

Steelhead green DAWN DUSK DUSK 58° 20% 58° 8% 64° 65° 61° Sunrise 6:51am Sunset 7:25pm Solar Noon 1:08pm Dawn 6:22am Dusk 7:53pm 759 CFS Summer skinny but moving 🌒 6% Waxing Crescent N E S W 16 NW mph 29.97" inHg rising 71.6°F Water Temp Now 11:05pm
Oak Orchard Creek
Today's Weather: Fair 30% rain NW 16mph
Coming up: Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Flow Rate
0 CFS · 17.37 ft
72th percentile · Typical
Summer mode - skinny but moving
24h trend
-3.1%
N E S W 16 NW mph wind 72h ago now High 774 Normal 584 Low 480 Flood 1,123 OPT 6h 24h 72h 17.37ft
Summer fishability window 872–1,027 CFS
Current-month middle flow band for warm-water fishing
72h movement falling (-14.1%)
Distance skinny but moving · 17.37ft
Rain · 63°F · NW 16mph
29.97"
Guide says: Running 759 CFS, water is clear, 72°F — prime summer feeding temp. Bring patience and low expectations — you might surprise yourself. Crystal clear — long leaders and small flies. Bite may slow — pressure rising. The Bite Starts When You Have to Leave.
"Three Layers Deep and Still Cold"

Flow is low — fish are stacked in the deepest pools and runs. Approach carefully, they spook easy.

Clear water — ideal for visual hunters like smallmouth. Long leaders, natural colors, and finesse presentations like drop-shots will produce.

Water at 72°F — prime summer pattern. Smallmouth Bass are highly active and aggressive across all techniques.

How to Fish It

Technique

Topwater time. Early morning and late evening topwater action can be explosive. Whopper Ploppers, Spook Jrs, or frog patterns over rocky flats and shorelines.

Fly/Lure Selection

Clear water demands finesse. 6-8lb fluoro, natural colored tubes (watermelon, green pumpkin), 3-inch drop-shot worms, or small swimbaits.

Where to Fish

Target boulder runs, bedrock pools, bridge pilings, and shaded banks where river smallies find cover.

Timing

Dawn and dusk windows are prime. Get out early before the sun is high, or fish the last 90 minutes of light.

Storm Context

STORM WATCHING

SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm.

Rain is in the forecast window. Gauges may look innocent right now, but this is the part where the river starts making plans without telling us.

Storm signals active in region.

  • - Front-load the trip before the weather arrives.
  • - Bring rain gear and keep an eye on radar.
  • - Re-check the gauge before committing to a longer drive.

What's Coming

Heavy rain is incoming — fish NOW. Current conditions are fishable but the river will blow out. This is your window.

Conditions

Rain — if it's light, fish are biting. If it's getting heavy, fish the front edge before flows spike.

High wind (16 mph) — tough casting. Shorten your leader, add weight, and fish tight to your bank.

Onshore wind (16 mph NW) — expect muddy water at the mouth; fish 0.5-1 mi upstream.

Rigs to consider right now

Match the current report to a setup

All rig guides

Fall river plan

Oak Orchard Creek summer fishing targets

Water temperature is in the active warmwater range. Expect bass and panfish to feed around current breaks, rock, and shade.

Smallmouth Bass

Where: boulder runs, bridge shade, pool tails, creek-mouth rock, and lower-river current breaks on Oak Orchard Creek.

Move: tubes, Ned rigs, small jerkbaits, poppers, and crayfish-colored streamers.

Species guide →

Walleye

Where: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper summer basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Oak Orchard Creek.

Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.

Species guide →

Panfish

Where: docks, weed edges, ponds, marina slips, brush, and shaded shoreline structure on Oak Orchard Creek.

Move: small jigs, waxworms, micro poppers, and slip floats for kids or fast action.

Species guide →

Northern Pike

Where: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Oak Orchard Creek.

Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.

Species guide →

Current read

Water temp 71.6°F. Clarity is clear. Overall rating: Fair for smallmouth bass. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.

Summer FAQ

What can I fish for on Oak Orchard Creek in summer?

Focus on the warm-water species shown above, then use the live flow, clarity, and temperature read to choose shade, rock, current breaks, creek mouths, lakefront structure, and low-light windows.

Steelhead care

Should I target steelhead on Oak Orchard Creek in summer?

Usually no. When water is warm, shift to smallmouth, walleye, panfish, pike, or another summer target instead of pressuring stressed trout.

7-Day Flow & Temperature

Flow distribution

1095-day history · n=1,958 · 84% confidence

72th percentile · Sweet spot
6h 24h 72h 759 CFS 480 p25 584 p50 774 p75 OPTIMAL freq
Now vs history
In the sweet spot
Optimal window
600–1,100 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
480–774 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context: Current flow is below typical for September. September median on this river: 931 CFS (n=264 hourly samples).
Clarity vs flow ranges
Steelhead Green
465–754 CFS typical
Stained likely now
557–1,145 CFS typical
Muddy
2,979–4,105 CFS typical
Sweet spot: Historically the productive zone.
-2 -1 0 1 2 3054707221,1101,707 Theoretical z (standard normal) Sample flow (CFS)
Sample quantiles | Theoretical line Good fit (89%)

Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.

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Near Oak Orchard Creek

Local Fly Shops & Guides Featured

Oak Orchard Tackle & Lodge

Albion, NY · 2 mi

tackle shop

Tackle shop and lodge on Oak Orchard Creek. Steelhead, brown trout, and salmon with guided trips.

Creek Chubs Guide Service

Waterport, NY · 4 mi

guide

Expert knowledge of every riffle and run on Oak Orchard Creek. Both beginner intro trips and pro-level steelhead trips available.

Oak Orchard Canoe Kayak Experts

Waterport, NY · 4 mi

attraction

Largest paddle shop between Rochester and Niagara Falls. Rentals, lessons, and river trips.

Jay Peck Guides

Spencerport, NY · 23 mi

guide

30+ years as licensed NYS guide. Catch-and-release fly fishing on Oak Orchard, Genesee, and Lake Ontario tribs.

Colemans Fly Shop

Spencerport, NY · 23 mi

fly shop

40+ years in business. Full fly shop with guiding, schools, custom fly tying, and stream reports for Oak Orchard and Genesee.

High Falls & Genesee Brew House

Rochester, NY · 32 mi

attraction

96-ft urban waterfall in downtown Rochester. Rooftop pint at one of America's oldest breweries.

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30-Day Statistics

Min Flow
-266 CFS
Max Flow
4,610 CFS
Avg Flow
846 CFS
Min Temp
67.1°F
Max Temp
78.4°F
Avg Temp
73°F

7-Day Fishing Outlook

Substantial precipitation in the forecast. Rivers will rise — fish the front end before conditions deteriorate.

Best day to fish: Monday — Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.

Wednesday is the day before rain moves in — barometric pressure drop often triggers aggressive feeding. Don't miss it.

Daily Fishing Forecast

Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Guide's Report above for a complete picture.

Today — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Breezy conditions (16 mph NW) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.

NWS Forecast Detail

Tonight: A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northwest wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Monday: A chance of rain showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Southwest wind 2 to 8 mph.

Tuesday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Wednesday: A chance of rain showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. West wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night: A chance of rain showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. North wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Thursday: A chance of rain showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Northeast wind 3 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night: A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Friday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Friday: A slight chance of rain showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Friday Night: A slight chance of rain showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Saturday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Saturday: A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night: A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Sunday: A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69.

Forecast via NWS, updated 4 minutes ago (11:00 PM EDT). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.

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