Walleye
PeakWhere: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Oak Orchard Creek.
Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.
Species guide →Oak Orchard Creek
Fair
About Oak Orchard Creek
Oak Orchard Creek at Waterport drains 239 square miles of Orleans County into Lake Ontario below the iconic Waterport Dam, a managed-release fishery that sustains 600-1,100 cfs through steelhead season. The Waterport powerhouse pool is the well-known destination -- big browns, steelhead, and the occasional Atlantic from the Salmon River reintroduction stack below the dam. Crowded in prime windows; the upstream reaches are quieter.
September through May with steelhead peaks at the October-December push and the March-April spring run. Powerhouse pool holds fish through winter regardless of weather. Sustained dam releases. The steelhead model reference on Oak Orchard Creek is 600–1,100 CFS. Basis: Per-river researched optimal range This is not a flood-stage or wading limit. The historical median flow is approximately 492 CFS, based on the available gauge history.
Current conditions (gauge observation Nov 5, 2026 11:30 AM EST): flow 187 CFS, water 56.7°F, clarity estimated from flow: clear. The Almanac Briefing rates the river FAIR as of this reading.
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Almanac Briefing
Chrome Clock
7-Day Chart
Forecast
Reports
Flow Rate
187.0
CFS
Gauge Height
15.92
ft
Water Temp
56.7
°F
Air Temp
64.4
°F
Estimated clarity
Clear
Estimated from flow — visibility unverified
Wind
🌬 Calm
≤5 mph
Measured turbidity
3.3
FNU
Read by the USGS sensor at Oak Orchard Creek at The Bridges, . Clearer than the daily average on 8 days in 10, over the 283 days on record.
Lower is clearer. This is a sensor reading; the Clarity above is estimated from flow, and the two can differ.
Water temperature source: USGS 0422018610 (primary sensor), observed Nov 5, 2026 11:30 AM EST.
Gauge observation: 51 minutes ago (Nov 5, 2026 11:30 AM EST)
Conditions today: Fair. Trending: rough.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
No storm pulse was detected in the lookback, but the barometer dropped 0.28 inHg over the last 24 hours. Flow ranged from 121 to 438 CFS (mean 311 CFS) across the selected lookback. Available water-temperature readings averaged 55°F. Pressure alone does not confirm fish activity. No substantial rain or strong wind is indicated in the available forecast; this does not guarantee stable river flow.
Lookback window Nov 2, 12 pm to Nov 5, 12 pm ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow
Pressure
Air temp, scaled
Rain per hour
Storm pulse window
Hourly flow pending
No storm pulse was detected in the lookback, but the barometer dropped 0.28 inHg over the last 24 hours. Flow ranged from 121 to 438 CFS (mean 307 CFS) across the selected lookback. Available water-temperature readings averaged 55°F. Pressure alone does not confirm fish activity. No substantial rain or strong wind is indicated in the available forecast; this does not guarantee stable river flow.
Lookback window Oct 29, 1 pm to Nov 5, 12 pm ET.
Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
| Gauge | Flow (CFS) | Height (ft) | Water Temp | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Orchard Creek at The Bridges (primary) | 187 | 15.92 | 56.7°F | 51 minutes ago Nov 5, 2026 11:30 AM EST |
| Oak Orchard Creek near Kenyonville | 275 | 2.62 | 58.3°F | 1 hour ago Nov 5, 2026 11:15 AM EST |
| Oak Orchard Creek near Shelby | 31 | 5.75 | 56.5°F | 51 minutes ago Nov 5, 2026 11:30 AM EST |
Almanac Briefing
Guide-level river, weather and fishing intelligence
Based on gauge observation from Thu, Nov 5 at 11:30 AM EST (51 minutes ago)
Evidence at a glance
- Last reported flow
- 187.0 CFS Configured USGS gauge for Oak Orchard Creek.
- Flow observation time
- 51 minutes ago · Within the current observation window
- Water temperature · separate sensor evidence
- 56.7°F USGS 0422018610 · primary sensor Observed (51 minutes ago).
- Assessment basis
- Clarity is estimated from flow. Ratings are model assessments.
- Issued forecast · separate from observations
- 428.0 CFS projected for Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST.Issued Nov 5, 5:00 AM EST. This is a forecast, not an observed reading.
Conditions do not establish fish presence or safe wading. Before a trip, verify current gauge readings, official weather alerts, access and regulations. Sources and methodology
Flow falling at 187 CFS. Estimated clarity is clear. Water temperature 56.7°F. Water assessment: fair.
Season & Run Context
Lake Ontario · Fall run season · modeled
The lake-temperature model has this basin in run season. Now it’s about picking your water: follow the flow, the recovery after rain and the latest local reports.
Model snapshot 2026-11-05 · lake surface temperature 55.6°F
Fishing Evidence
Quiet on the report front: no shared angler reports for these rivers in the last seven days.
Review regional steelhead signals in Pulse →Flow History & Response
Last 24 hours of stored flow history: 93.0–575.0 CFS across 149 readings. First-to-last change: -190.0 CFS.
Inspect the flow history →Prior Storms · Last 14 Days
Oct 30: October 30 New York (Lake Ontario) Storm; ended Oct 30, 7:15 AM EDT; archived rainfall forecast 0.000 in; archived basin rainfall maximum 0.000 in.
Oct 29: October 29-30 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Ohio Storm; ended Oct 29, 9:00 PM EDT; archived rainfall forecast 0.000 in; archived basin rainfall maximum 0.320 in.
Issued River Flow Outlook
Oak Orchard Creek · 428.0 CFS projected for Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 5, 5:00 AM EST)
Oak Orchard Creek · 428.0 CFS projected for Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 5, 5:00 AM EST)
Oak Orchard Creek · 428.0 CFS projected for Sun Nov 8, 12:00 PM EST (issued Nov 5, 5:00 AM EST)
Regional outlook: next available target per river. Individual briefings: up to three targets.
Forecast vs. Actual · Verification
Saved system-wide verification as of 2026-11-05T10:05:38+00:00: 12834 locked forecast cases, 9256 evaluated against later own-gauge readings. Pending, missing and excluded cases and errors by model, river and lead time are documented in the methodology. River results for model c5c4a91f: 60 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 571.0 CFS. Paired comparison (60 cases): model error 571.0 CFS versus 282.8 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model 395a5868: 60 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 347.6 CFS. Paired comparison (60 cases): model error 347.6 CFS versus 265.0 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model c2a5feaf: 6 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 150.3 CFS. Paired comparison (6 cases): model error 150.3 CFS versus 150.3 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model 467e92d7: 12 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 121.7 CFS. Paired comparison (12 cases): model error 121.7 CFS versus 121.7 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model ae671bd0: 84 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 131.9 CFS. Paired comparison (84 cases): model error 131.9 CFS versus 131.9 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model 48521c91: 95 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 157.0 CFS. Paired comparison (95 cases): model error 157.0 CFS versus 157.0 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. River results for model b3f961a9: 30 scored cases; mean absolute flow error 104.7 CFS. Paired comparison (30 cases): model error 104.7 CFS versus 104.7 CFS for holding the issuance flow unchanged. This verifies flow forecasts, not catches, clarity or the entire Alley Index.
Review forecast verification →Sources & Methodology
Water ratings summarize flow, temperature and weather. Run context comes from the lake-temperature model; fishing totals come from shared angler reports. Clarity is estimated from flow, and temperature may come from a secondary gauge. Gauge timestamps and coverage describe the available history. Forecast verification measures river-flow error.
Read the methodology →Oak Orchard Creek
Today's Weather: Fair
66° 34% rain
SW 18mph
Coming up: Chance Rain Showers
Flow Rate
187.0
CFS
·
15.92
ft
Historical percentile 1 · Very Low
24h trend
↘
-16.1%
Steelhead window
600–1,100 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Distance
413 CFS below optimal · 15.92ft
Weather: Clouds
· 64°F
· WSW 4mph
29.74" ↘
Guide says:
Flow falling at 187 CFS. Estimated clarity is clear. Water temperature 56.7°F. Water assessment: fair.
Gauge observation: Nov 5, 2026 11:30 AM EST
"Cold Hands, Hot Fish"
Flow is below the river-specific reference range (600–1,100 CFS).
Flow phase: dropping.
Estimated clarity: clear.
Stored water temperature: 56.7°F.
Scoring reference: 600–1100 CFS (manual). This is a model reference, not a flood-stage or wading assessment.
Operational Outlook
Assessment
Fair water conditions.
Window
Watch for falling flows to reach the reference range before the next rain pulse. That’s the window to keep on your radar.
Weather Forecast & River Response
Weather forecast retrieved Nov 5, 10:02 AM EST.
Today: Partly Sunny, 66°F, wind SW 13 to 18 mph, precipitation chance 4%.
Tonight: Chance Rain Showers, 50°F, wind SW 5 to 13 mph, precipitation chance 34%.
Friday: Chance Rain Showers, 60°F, wind W 6 mph, precipitation chance 51%.
Friday Night: Rain Showers, 41°F, wind W 6 mph, precipitation chance 78%.
Saturday: Rain Showers, 54°F, wind W 7 to 12 mph, precipitation chance 91%.
This is the drop worth watching. Follow the flow toward the reference range and keep an eye on more basin rain—it can reset the clock.
Conditions
Stored air temperature: 64.4°F.
Stored weather: Clouds.
Stored wind: 4 mph WSW.
Rigs to consider right now
Match the current report to a setup
Centerpin Sucker Spawn Rig
Presents small egg patterns naturally through clear, pressured water where drift quality matters.
Advanced
Indicator Nymphing Rig
Suspends nymphs at a repeatable depth while giving you a visible take signal.
Intermediate
River Float Rig
Keeps a natural offering drifting at the same pace as the current instead of dragging behind your line.
Beginner
Spey & Swing Rig
Covers water efficiently when fish are willing to move for a broadside fly.
Intermediate
Fall river plan
Oak Orchard Creek other seasonal fishing targets
The river is in a transition window. Warm afternoons can turn on smallmouth and panfish while cooler pockets still matter.
Northern Pike
PeakWhere: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Oak Orchard Creek.
Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.
Species guide →Current read
Water temp 56.7°F. Flow-estimated clarity is clear; visibility is unverified. Overall rating: Fair for steelhead. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.
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7-Day Flow & Temperature
Flow distribution
1095-day history · n=2,261 · 85% confidence
Now vs history
413 CFS below optimal
Optimal window
600–1,100 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
386–728 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context:
Current flow is below typical for November.
November median on this river: 312 CFS
(n=105 hourly samples).
Historical flow-based clarity estimates
Clear
flow estimate
374–664 CFS typical
Stained
1,038–1,559 CFS typical
Muddy
3,084–4,140 CFS typical
Low:
Below the historical 25th percentile.
Sample quantiles
|
Theoretical line
Good fit (88%)
Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.
Recent Angler Reports
Join to PostBeen on the Oak Orchard Creek? Share your report.
Log catches, track your season, and help other anglers dial in current conditions. Your public angler profile lives at steelheadalmanac.com/u/you.
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Sign in to see reports shared with members. Anglers choose who can read each report.
No reports are available to you for Oak Orchard Creek.
Near Oak Orchard Creek
Local Fly Shops & Guides
Featured
Oak Orchard Tackle & Lodge
Albion, NY · 2 mi
Oak Orchard Tackle & Lodge serves anglers from Carlton, near Albion on Lake Ontario’s south shore. Its website features fly-fishing gear, conventional tributary drift tackle, float-fishing supplies and shore-casting tackle for trout, salmon and other species. Licorice Lodge and Garage Lodge provide lodging options alongside the tackle shop.
Creek Chubs Guide Service
Waterport, NY · 4 mi
Captain Hayden London’s Creek Chubs Guide Service offers full-day fishing trips in Western New York, focusing on salmon, steelhead and brown trout. Its website highlights Oak Orchard Creek and Sandy Creek, with fly fishing, drift techniques and conventional tackle tailored to the guest’s experience and seasonal conditions.
Oak Orchard Canoe Kayak Experts
Waterport, NY · 4 mi
Largest paddle shop between Rochester and Niagara Falls. Rentals, lessons, and river trips.
guide
Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing offers year-round, catch-and-release fly fishing on Lake Ontario tributaries, Western New York trout streams and lakes. Trips span salmon, trout, steelhead, pike and smallmouth bass, with an emphasis on conversation, shared experience and time on the water.
High Falls & Genesee Brew House
Rochester, NY · 32 mi
96-ft urban waterfall in downtown Rochester. Rooftop pint at one of America's oldest breweries.
Ontario Fly Outfitters
Webster, NY · 32 mi
Scott Feltrinelli’s Ontario Fly Outfitters offers walk-and-wade fly fishing in Western New York’s Great Lakes region, from the Salmon River to Steelhead Alley. The service targets steelhead, salmon, brown trout and smallmouth bass. Inland trout trips and casting lessons are also available, with an emphasis on streamer fishing and conservation.
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30-Day Statistics
Min Flow
-334 CFS
Max Flow
1,180 CFS
Avg Flow
389 CFS
Min Temp
53.8°F
Max Temp
57.4°F
Avg Temp
55.4°F
7-Day Fishing Outlook
Quantitative precipitation coverage is incomplete. Rain chances do not establish rainfall amounts or future river flows.
Highest weather-only score: Friday. Check current water conditions separately; this is not a best-river or fishing-success forecast.
Daily Fishing Forecast
Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Almanac Briefing above for a complete picture.
Today — Angler's Report
fair fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
- Breezy conditions (18 mph SW) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.
NWS Forecast Detail
Today:
Partly sunny. High near 66, with temperatures falling to around 59 in the afternoon. Southwest wind 13 to 18 mph. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight:
A chance of rain showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Southwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
NWS Forecast Detail
Friday:
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy. High near 60, with temperatures falling to around 54 in the afternoon. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night:
Rain showers. Cloudy, with a low around 41. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
NWS Forecast Detail
Saturday:
Rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 54. West wind 7 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night:
Rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday — Angler's Report
good fishing- A smaller rain amount is forecast. Check current flow and local visibility; weather alone does not confirm fish activity.
- Breezy conditions (17 mph W) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.
NWS Forecast Detail
Sunday:
A chance of rain showers before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. West wind 12 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night:
A chance of rain showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. West wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday — Angler's Report
fair fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
- Breezy conditions (16 mph W) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.
NWS Forecast Detail
Monday:
A chance of rain showers before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night:
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Tuesday — Angler's Report
fair fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
- Warmer air is forecast. Check an actual local water temperature before choosing a fishing window.
- Breezy conditions (17 mph SW) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.
NWS Forecast Detail
Tuesday:
A slight chance of rain showers between 7am and 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Tuesday Night:
A slight chance of rain showers between 7pm and 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Veterans Day — Angler's Report
good fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
NWS Forecast Detail
Veterans Day:
Partly sunny, with a high near 52.
Wednesday — Angler's Report
fair fishing- Rainfall amount is unavailable or precipitation phase is mixed/frozen. Precipitation chance alone does not establish a river rise.
NWS Forecast Detail
Wednesday Night:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Forecast via NWS, updated 2 hours ago (Nov 5, 2026 10:02 AM EST). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.
Recommended Gear
Clear water + dropping flow + warmer temps — finesse tippet and natural patterns first.
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More on Oak Orchard Creek
Deep Dives
Recent Storm Events
- October 30 New York (Lake Ontario) Storm — Oct 30, 2026
- October 29-30 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Ohio Storm — Oct 29, 2026
- October 11-12 Alley Storm — Oct 11, 2026
Species Profiles
- Steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss
- Brown Trout Salmo trutta
- Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha
