Wed September 2-4 Alley Storm
Sep 2-4 superstorm -- 3.1" of rain across Steelhead Alley; NWS Buffalo forecast undershot by 0.9". Lake Erie tribs out through Thursday.
Meteorological Analysis
A severe storm system rolled through the Steelhead Alley region starting on Wednesday, September 2, 2026 and lasting until Friday, September 4, 2026. The storm was active for approximately 55 hours, dumping a maximum of 3.14" of rain across affected zones. Geographically, the weather system impacted the New York (Lake Erie), New York (Lake Ontario), Ohio, Pennsylvania regions, causing rapid water-level rises on multiple tributaries.
Gauges recorded significant river responses, particularly along Salmon River (peaking at 244 CFS), Cattaraugus Creek (peaking at 2,750 CFS), Silver Creek (peaking at 6 CFS), Canadaway Creek (peaking at 240 CFS), Vermilion River @ Vermilion (peaking at 34 CFS), Rocky River near Berea (peaking at 999 CFS), Cuyahoga River @ Independence (peaking at 2,390 CFS), Brandy Run near Girard (peaking at 129 CFS), Black River (peaking at 338 CFS), Chagrin River @ Willoughby (peaking at 1,130 CFS), Euclid Creek (peaking at 2,210 CFS), Eighteen Mile Creek (peaking at 302 CFS), Buffalo Creek (peaking at 515 CFS), Cazenovia Creek (peaking at 626 CFS), Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) (peaking at 745 CFS), Irondequoit Creek (peaking at 1,060 CFS), Johnson Creek (peaking at 2,130 CFS), Ashtabula River (peaking at 570 CFS), Huron River (peaking at 384 CFS), Conneaut Creek (peaking at 728 CFS), Elk Creek (peaking at 1,518 CFS), Crooked Creek (peaking at 660 CFS), Black River (Watertown) (peaking at 3,760 CFS), Sandy Creek (Hamlin) (peaking at 705 CFS), Grand River near Painesville (peaking at 1,220 CFS), Sandy Creek (Adams) (peaking at 154 CFS), Oak Orchard Creek (peaking at 4,610 CFS), Walnut Creek (peaking at 1,690 CFS), Twenty Mile Creek (peaking at 2,607 CFS), Chautauqua Creek (peaking at 368 CFS), Genesee River (peaking at 6,210 CFS). Angling conditions deteriorated quickly during the peak flow periods, leading to temporary washouts. Gaging stations monitored the recovery times as flows began returning to their baselines, mapping out the best windows for fishermen to get back on the water.
From a weather prediction standpoint, the NWS forecasts for this event received an aggregate score card grade of 'B'. Gaging observations were matched against NWS precipitation models to assess the forecasting margins, highlighting the variance in local rainfall amounts across the lake shores.
Tributary Response & Recovery
Salmon River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 239 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 244 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 01:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 4, 05:30
- Baseline Return
- Sep 3, 03:00
Cattaraugus Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 227 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 2,750 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 12:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 3, 06:15
- Baseline Return
- Sep 6, 01:00
Silver Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 4 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 6 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 05:00
- Baseline Return
- Sep 3, 06:00
Canadaway Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 11 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 240 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 11:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 3, 06:15
- Baseline Return
- Sep 3, 18:00
Vermilion River @ Vermilion
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 19 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 34 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 22:00
- Baseline Return
- Sep 5, 05:00
Rocky River near Berea
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 59 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 999 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 03:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 4, 08:15
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 18:00
Cuyahoga River @ Independence
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 357 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 2,390 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 03:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 4, 06:45
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 18:00
Brandy Run near Girard
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 1 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 129 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 08:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 3, 06:15
- Baseline Return
- Sep 3, 20:00
Black River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 4 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 338 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 23:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 4, 12:15
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 18:00
Chagrin River @ Willoughby
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 1,938 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,130 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 17:00
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 18:00
Euclid Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 8 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 2,210 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 11:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 4, 13:45
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 22:00
Eighteen Mile Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 17 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 302 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 09:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 3, 09:17
- Baseline Return
- Sep 5, 13:00
Buffalo Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 515 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 15:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 16:15
Cazenovia Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 626 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 13:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 16:15
Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 169 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 745 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 07:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 11:45
- Baseline Return
- Sep 5, 01:00
Irondequoit Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 90 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,060 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 03:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 12:15
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 10:00
Johnson Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 287 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 2,130 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 09:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 11:30
- Baseline Return
- Sep 5, 16:00
Ashtabula River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 570 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 06:30
Huron River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 93 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 384 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 17:00
- Baseline Return
- Sep 5, 05:00
Conneaut Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 12 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 728 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 4, 04:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 3, 09:17
- Baseline Return
- Sep 5, 21:00
Elk Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 15 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,518 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 09:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 3, 06:15
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 06:00
Crooked Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 7 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 660 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 09:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 3, 05:45
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 06:00
Black River (Watertown)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 3,760 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 18:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 4, 11:00
Sandy Creek (Hamlin)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 128 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 705 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 07:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 11:30
- Baseline Return
- Sep 5, 09:00
Grand River near Painesville
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 45 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,220 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 15:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 4, 08:15
- Baseline Return
- Sep 5, 17:00
Sandy Creek (Adams)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 166 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 154 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 01:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 12:45
- Baseline Return
- Sep 3, 02:00
Oak Orchard Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 728 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 4,610 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 11:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 11:30
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 13:00
Walnut Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 17 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,690 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 07:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 10:30
- Baseline Return
- Sep 3, 11:00
Twenty Mile Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 27 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 2,607 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 09:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 2, 10:30
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 06:00
Chautauqua Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 21 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 368 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 3, 11:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 3, 06:45
- Baseline Return
- Sep 4, 00:00
Genesee River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 612 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 6,210 CFS
- Peak Time
- Sep 5, 09:00
- Recovers By
- Sep 3, 06:30
- Baseline Return
- Sep 6, 01:00
Fishing Guide & Tactics
Looking for advice on how to target steelhead on these rivers when they are recovering from a storm? Check out our master guides:
