Thu October 29 New York (Lake Erie) Storm

Meteorological Analysis

A minor storm system rolled through the Steelhead Alley region starting on Thursday, October 29, 2026 and lasting until Thursday, October 29, 2026. The storm was active for approximately 1 hours, dumping a maximum of 0.00" of rain across affected zones. Geographically, the weather system impacted the New York (Lake Erie) regions, causing rapid water-level rises on multiple tributaries.

Gauges recorded significant river responses, particularly along Cattaraugus Creek (peaking at 122 CFS), Chautauqua Creek (peaking at 9 CFS), Eighteen Mile Creek (peaking at 7 CFS), Canadaway Creek (peaking at 6 CFS), Silver Creek (peaking at 2 CFS), Buffalo Creek (peaking at 18 CFS), Cazenovia Creek (peaking at 15 CFS). Angling conditions deteriorated quickly during the peak flow periods, leading to temporary washouts. Gaging stations monitored the recovery times as flows began returning to their baselines, mapping out the best windows for fishermen to get back on the water.

From a weather prediction standpoint, the NWS forecasts for this event received an aggregate score card grade of 'B'. Gaging observations were matched against NWS precipitation models to assess the forecasting margins, highlighting the variance in local rainfall amounts across the lake shores.