Mon October 5 New York (Lake Ontario) Storm

Meteorological Analysis

A moderate storm system rolled through the Steelhead Alley region starting on Monday, October 5, 2026 and lasting until Monday, October 5, 2026. The storm was active for approximately 1 hours, dumping a maximum of 0.33" of rain across affected zones. Geographically, the weather system impacted the New York (Lake Ontario) regions, causing rapid water-level rises on multiple tributaries.

Gauges recorded significant river responses, particularly along Salmon River (peaking at 220 CFS), Oak Orchard Creek (peaking at 445 CFS), Sandy Creek (Hamlin) (peaking at 89 CFS), Black River (Watertown) (peaking at 1,100 CFS), Irondequoit Creek (peaking at 61 CFS), Sandy Creek (Adams) (peaking at 45 CFS), Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) (peaking at 134 CFS), Genesee River (peaking at 891 CFS), Johnson Creek (peaking at 103 CFS). Angling conditions deteriorated quickly during the peak flow periods, leading to temporary washouts. Gaging stations monitored the recovery times as flows began returning to their baselines, mapping out the best windows for fishermen to get back on the water.

From a weather prediction standpoint, the NWS forecasts for this event received an aggregate score card grade of 'A'. Gaging observations were matched against NWS precipitation models to assess the forecasting margins, highlighting the variance in local rainfall amounts across the lake shores.