Sat October 3 New York (Lake Ontario) Storm

Meteorological Analysis

A moderate storm system rolled through the Steelhead Alley region starting on Saturday, October 3, 2026 and lasting until Saturday, October 3, 2026. The storm was active for approximately 2 hours, dumping a maximum of 0.00" of rain across affected zones. Geographically, the weather system impacted the New York (Lake Ontario) regions, causing rapid water-level rises on multiple tributaries.

Gauges recorded significant river responses, particularly along Salmon River (peaking at 216 CFS), Oak Orchard Creek (peaking at 587 CFS), Sandy Creek (Hamlin) (peaking at 107 CFS), Black River (Watertown) (peaking at 1,120 CFS), Genesee River (peaking at 970 CFS), Irondequoit Creek (peaking at 77 CFS), Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) (peaking at 185 CFS), Sandy Creek (Adams) (peaking at 122 CFS), Johnson Creek (peaking at 148 CFS). Angling conditions deteriorated quickly during the peak flow periods, leading to temporary washouts. Gaging stations monitored the recovery times as flows began returning to their baselines, mapping out the best windows for fishermen to get back on the water.

From a weather prediction standpoint, the NWS forecasts for this event received an aggregate score card grade of 'B'. Gaging observations were matched against NWS precipitation models to assess the forecasting margins, highlighting the variance in local rainfall amounts across the lake shores.