River temperatures & lake temperature model
Favorable river temperatures can support active steelhead even while the lakes remain warmer. Fish may already be in tributaries; lake temperature alone cannot tell us whether the run has started.
The river gauges and annual chart describe river temperatures. The separate lake model below describes a seasonal temperature pattern. Confirm fish presence with fresh local reports, and check flow and conditions on the river you plan to fish.
Water temperature watch
Cooling water helps set the stage. Rain, flow, timing, and local reports matter too.
Lake Erie
61.2°F
4 NOAA stations · latest reading per station · within 6 hours
60.3–62.1°F range
Ohio
56.2°F
5 river gauges reporting · latest collected reading per gauge · within 3 hours
51.3–59.0°F range
Pennsylvania
55.2°F
1 river gauge reporting · latest collected reading per gauge · within 3 hours
55.2–55.2°F range
New York (Lake Erie)
52.9°F
1 river gauge reporting · latest collected reading per gauge · within 3 hours
52.9–52.9°F range
New York (Lake Ontario)
53.5°F
8 river gauges reporting · latest collected reading per gauge · within 3 hours
50.5–56.7°F range
Follow the seasonal pattern: 2016–2025 comparisons are available for Cuyahoga, Walnut Creek, Cattaraugus, and Genesee.
See the historical temperature curve →
Sources, reading times & what these averages mean
Lake Erie uses the latest observation from each reporting NOAA buoy or shore station within 6 hours. It is a sample of station locations, not a lake-wide or river-mouth temperature. River regions use the latest available temperature collected within 3 hours from each unique active USGS gauge; each gauge counts once. Multiple gauges on one river count separately. Regions follow the Almanac river groups, including upstream gauges across state lines. Missing values, stale collections, and borrowed river-card temperatures are excluded.
River times below show when the Almanac collected the reading; USGS measurement times may be earlier. A region with one reporting gauge represents that gauge alone. Updated every 5 minutes.
Lake Erie
- Lake Erie (eastern offshore, Port Colborne): 60.3°F · Oct 26, 5:00 pm EDT observed
- Cleveland Harbor (central Erie south shore): 62.1°F · Oct 26, 4:48 pm EDT observed
- Fairport Harbor (central Erie south): 60.6°F · Oct 26, 4:48 pm EDT observed
- Marblehead (western Erie): 61.9°F · Oct 26, 4:48 pm EDT observed
Ohio
- Cuyahoga River @ Independence: 57.4°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Cuyahoga River at Jaite: 58.1°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Huron River at Milan: 55.4°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Grand River near Painesville: 59.0°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Conneaut Creek at Dickonsburg PA: 51.3°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
Pennsylvania
- Walnut Creek Upstream Pool: 55.2°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
New York (Lake Erie)
- Cattaraugus Creek at Gowanda: 52.9°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
New York (Lake Ontario)
- Eighteenmile Creek at Burt: 54.3°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Genesee River at Ford St Bridge, Rochester: 51.3°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Irondequoit Creek above Blossom Rd, Rochester: 52.0°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Johnson Creek at Kuckville: 52.7°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Sandy Creek at North Hamlin: 54.9°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Oak Orchard Creek at The Bridges: 55.8°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Oak Orchard Creek near Kenyonville: 56.7°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
- Oak Orchard Creek near Shelby: 50.5°F · Oct 26, 5:30 pm EDT collected
NY DEC describes cooling creek temperatures as part of the Lake Erie fall migration. Its Lake Ontario guidance identifies 45–58°F as a favorable stream-temperature range. This is context, not a universal lake threshold or confirmation that fish are present.
Annual river temperature curve
2026 weekly averages from the Almanac's retained daily history, with the range behind them. Available weeks only; this is not a long-term climate normal.
Chart refreshed · Data through Oct 25, 2026 Chart refreshes hourly; this is not a live gauge reading. Coverage varies by river.
Latest seven-day average
Seven-day average, Oct 19–25. On Oct 25 alone, Walnut Creek averaged 49.5°F.
Built from daily summaries through Oct 25, not from a live gauge. A river counts only with three or more days in the week, so one that has stopped reporting drops out rather than holding the average up; the change compares the same rivers in both weeks.
2016–2025 historical average · Dashed gold line with the range of yearly monthly averages shaded behind it. Blue shows 2026 available-week averages.
Historical reference: USGS 04213152. The selected year's Almanac archive uses a different collection method and may include partial weeks; compare seasonal shape with care.
Archive coverage across included rivers: 2026-01-26 to 2026-10-25. Coverage varies by river and week.
Swipe the chart sideways to see all twelve months.
General steelhead behavior guidance: colder water favors slower, deeper holding areas and slow presentations; favorable temperatures can support more active fish; above 65°F calls for increasing caution about heat stress. Unshaded gaps are transitions. These are approximate guide bands, not biological cutoffs or proof of fish presence. Weekly and regional averages can hide warm days and local conditions—check the water where you fish.
Guidance context: CFRTU / John Nagy and Matt Straw, Great Lakes Angler. Published ranges vary; the colored bands are a simplified reference. Gold shading remains the historical range of yearly monthly averages.
Monthly and weekly values, coverage & method
Historical reference: approved USGS daily mean water temperatures from 2016–2025. Each year/month needs at least 80% of its calendar days; each plotted month needs at least three qualifying years. Qualifying yearly monthly means get equal weight. Shading is their minimum–maximum range, not daily extremes or a confidence interval. Winter gaps stay blank. This fixed reference is not a 30-year climate normal or a migration forecast.
| Month | Mean °F | Yearly monthly range °F | Qualifying years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Insufficient history | — | 0 / 10 · None |
| Feb | Insufficient history | — | 0 / 10 · None |
| Mar | Insufficient history | — | 0 / 10 · None |
| Apr | 50.4 | 47.9–51.8 | 6 / 10 · 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| May | 59.8 | 57.6–63.6 | 10 / 10 · 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Jun | 68.4 | 65.8–70.4 | 10 / 10 · 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Jul | 73.5 | 71.4–75.3 | 10 / 10 · 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Aug | 71.7 | 69.5–74.8 | 10 / 10 · 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Sep | 65.7 | 64.3–68 | 10 / 10 · 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Oct | 55.1 | 51.2–59.2 | 10 / 10 · 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Nov | Insufficient history | — | 1 / 10 · 2016 |
| Dec | Insufficient history | — | 0 / 10 · None |
Each river's available daily means are averaged within a week, counted in seven-day blocks from January 1, and within a month; regional curves then give each contributing river equal weight. Known proxy rivers are excluded. Coverage can change between weeks, and partial weeks are not filled or extrapolated. The live panel above instead averages individual gauges, so its numbers are not directly comparable.
Ranges. For a single river the shaded range runs from the lowest daily low to the highest daily high in that week. For a region, and for all rivers together, it runs from the coldest river's weekly mean to the warmest river's; where only one river in a region reported, that river's own daily lows and highs are used instead. It is a spread of what was recorded, not a confidence interval.
Latest seven-day average. The seven days ending on the archive's newest day, compared with the seven before. A river needs three or more days in a week to count, and the change is measured only over rivers present in both weeks.
These retained river summaries combine backfill and live collection. Older summaries do not preserve full source provenance and may contain secondary-gauge or carried-forward readings. They are a historical reference, not a verified continuous sensor record or a migration forecast.
Three kinds of day are left out as instrument faults rather than water: a day reading 32°F flat while the same river's surrounding days are above 45°F, a day whose samples include an error value or a 32°F dropout in warm water, and a day stuck on a single reading above freezing. 5 river-days excluded in 2026. A river holding at 32°F in winter is ice and stays in.
No missing week is connected across a gap. A week or month with only a few days still shows its available mean; inspect its coverage below. Raw readings expire after about 90 days, but these daily summaries are retained.
| Series | Month | Mean °F | Range °F | Rivers | Days / calendar days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walnut Creek | Jan | No data | — | 0 | — / 31 |
| Walnut Creek | Feb | No data | — | 0 | — / 28 |
| Walnut Creek | Mar | No data | — | 0 | — / 31 |
| Walnut Creek | Apr | 53.6 | 35.1–67.1 | 1 | 30–30 / 30 |
| Walnut Creek | May | 57.8 | 43.7–76.6 | 1 | 31–31 / 31 |
| Walnut Creek | Jun | 68.1 | 55.6–85.1 | 1 | 30–30 / 30 |
| Walnut Creek | Jul | 74.5 | 60.6–89.8 | 1 | 31–31 / 31 |
| Walnut Creek | Aug | 71.3 | 62.2–83.7 | 1 | 31–31 / 31 |
| Walnut Creek | Sep | 65.5 | 53.1–76.8 | 1 | 30–30 / 30 |
| Walnut Creek | Oct | 56.2 | 44.6–69.3 | 1 | 25–25 / 31 |
| Walnut Creek | Nov | No data | — | 0 | — / 30 |
| Walnut Creek | Dec | No data | — | 0 | — / 31 |
| Week | Mean °F | Range °F | Rivers | Days per river |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26–Apr 1 | 51.5 | 46.4–56.7 | 1 | 1–1 / 7 |
| Apr 2–8 | 48.7 | 35.1–61.9 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Apr 9–15 | 54.4 | 42.8–67.1 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Apr 16–22 | 55.5 | 41.7–65.8 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Apr 23–29 | 56.5 | 49.1–65.7 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Apr 30–May 6 | 52.4 | 43.7–65.5 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| May 7–13 | 54.7 | 46.9–62.6 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| May 14–20 | 60.8 | 47.7–76.6 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| May 21–27 | 59.8 | 53.2–71.2 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| May 28–Jun 3 | 62.7 | 54.3–72.7 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Jun 4–10 | 69.5 | 57.6–78.4 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Jun 11–17 | 68.6 | 58.6–79.2 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Jun 18–24 | 66.3 | 60.8–73.9 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Jun 25–Jul 1 | 72.1 | 63.7–88.3 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Jul 2–8 | 77.5 | 71.1–89.8 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Jul 9–15 | 76.1 | 68.0–86.2 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Jul 16–22 | 74.1 | 62.1–86.2 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Jul 23–29 | 70.2 | 60.6–78.6 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Jul 30–Aug 5 | 72.7 | 65.8–81.3 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Aug 6–12 | 74.6 | 70.0–83.7 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Aug 13–19 | 73.1 | 68.4–80.4 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Aug 20–26 | 67.4 | 62.2–76.1 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Aug 27–Sep 2 | 69.3 | 62.2–76.8 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Sep 3–9 | 68.6 | 62.1–73.4 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Sep 10–16 | 67.4 | 59.4–73.9 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Sep 17–23 | 64.5 | 57.0–70.7 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Sep 24–30 | 59.6 | 53.1–66.6 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Oct 1–7 | 59.3 | 51.1–67.5 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Oct 8–14 | 59.6 | 52.0–69.3 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Oct 15–21 | 53.6 | 45.9–64.2 | 1 | 7–7 / 7 |
| Oct 22–28 | 49.2 | 44.6–54.5 | 1 | 4–4 / 7 |
Lake temperatures · seasonal context
Lake temperature model
These daily estimates use lake station temperatures and the calendar, separately from the river readings above. A lake can remain above the model’s fall temperature band while tributaries have favorable temperatures and already hold steelhead. This model does not confirm the start or absence of a run.
Lake Erie
Temperature-based seasonal estimate · 2026-10-26
Lake Above Fall Temperature Band
Lake temperatures remain above the model’s fall band; fish may already be in tributaries.
Seasonal context only. Fish presence and migration are not confirmed by this model.
- Model-day station average
- 60.8°F
- Change vs previous model day
- -0.1°F
- Change vs model day 7 days earlier
- -0.4°F
- Days in this state
- 25
Each station’s stored readings for 2026-10-26 (UTC) are averaged first, then stations count equally. The day may be incomplete.
Model updated Oct 26, 2026 · 6:30 am EDT.
Latest Stored Station Readings
Lake Ontario
Temperature-based seasonal estimate · 2026-10-26
Lake Above Fall Temperature Band
Lake temperatures remain above the model’s fall band; fish may already be in tributaries.
Seasonal context only. Fish presence and migration are not confirmed by this model.
- Model-day station average
- 56.2°F
- Change vs previous model day
- -0.3°F
- Change vs model day 7 days earlier
- -1.0°F
- Days in this state
- 2
Each station’s stored readings for 2026-10-26 (UTC) are averaged first, then stations count equally. The day may be incomplete.
Model updated Oct 26, 2026 · 6:30 am EDT.
Latest Stored Station Readings
How This Works
Great Lakes steelhead live in the lakes and migrate into tributaries. Cooling stream temperatures, rainfall, flow, season, and fish strain all influence timing. Lake station temperatures provide background context; they do not confirm fish entering a particular river.
The seasonal estimates above use stored NOAA station readings, temperature trends, and the calendar. In September–November, lake temperatures above 56°F receive the Lake Above Fall Temperature Band label; falling temperatures within 50–56°F receive the fall-start pattern. The separate crossing counter tracks 55°F in either direction. These are site heuristics, not proven migration switches. The favorable bands on the river chart apply to river temperatures, independently of this lake model; neither establishes fish presence.
The temperature watch at the top averages one latest reading per station within six hours. The model-day average first averages each station’s stored readings within the UTC date shown, then gives each station equal weight. Model-day changes compare that date with the previous date and the date exactly seven days earlier; a missing comparison day has no change value. Recent readings and model-day averages can differ because they cover different periods. The river chart uses seven-day averages from retained daily summaries and a different set of river gauges.
For biological context and source links, open the temperature-watch notes above. Check current river conditions and fresh local reports before planning a trip.
